Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The 'Arab Spring' one year on This Saturday marks a year since the end of Hosni Mubarak’s three-decade reign over Egypt. Only a few weeks before that, Tunisia’s revolution ended with the toppling of the Ben Ali regime. Since then... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty threatens Romania's splendid isolation It goes without saying that today’s resignation of the Romanian Prime Minister, Emil Boc, in response to growing public discontent with austerity, is likely to weigh heavily on the country’s financial... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crunch year for the euro-zone? While the news on the euro-zone economy has improved a bit in the last month or two, 2012 could still turn out to be crunch year for the currency union. Fiscal progress in the peripheral economies has... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s Humala makes a solid start; bigger challenges ahead Initial fears that the election of Ollanta Humala would mark a departure from the orthodox economic policies of his predecessor, Alan García, have proven to be wide of the mark. Even so, satisfying... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update An update on Russia’s unrest In a Focus piece last month we outlined three possible ways in which the political situation in Russia might develop. Although it is still too early to say with any certainty how events will play out... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF will need to address Egypt's external funding problems The Egyptian government’s decision to resume negotiations with the IMF is good news. The proposed $3 billion facility would help plug a gaping hole in the budget. But it would not be sufficient to... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.) & BCC Survey (Q4) The UK data released overnight enjoyed the slightly more upbeat tone seen in the other news on the economy so far this year. 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel/Sarkozy summit adds to break-up risk Merkel and Sarkozy’s pledge to accelerate their contributions to the euro-zone’s bail-out fund following today’s summit was vaguely encouraging. But far more striking was their lukewarm support for... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US stock market at risk from the earnings cycle The fourth quarter US corporate earnings season kicks off today. The reporting season is unlikely to be especially upbeat as the profits cycle is now peaking. Looking ahead, the growth rate of profits... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How should we think about the leadership transition? 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Elections in Asia - what they mean for the region A number of important elections and leadership changes are due to take place across emerging Asia over the next 12 months. The outcomes will have implications for economic policymaking and growth... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Services Report (Dec.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) December’s CIPS/Markit report on services echoed the manufacturing and construction surveys already released in suggesting that the recovery regained some momentum at the very end of last year... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Income/ Spending (Nov.) November's personal spending and durable goods data releases were a little disappointing and together suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will now come in at slightly below 2.5% annualised, whereas... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Kim Jong-il's death adds to Korean uncertainty Given the lack of transparency in North Korea, it would be unwise to leap to any conclusions following news of Kim Jong-il’s death. Our best guess is that the uncomfortable status quo will continue... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s GDP recovers but challenging times ahead Today’s reports that Egypt’s GDP grew by 0.5% y/y in the third quarter suggest that the economy has now recovered most of the initial losses in output brought about by the social unrest. However... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response IP/PPI (Nov), Emp St/Phil Fed (Dec), Cur Ac (Q3) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in November is a bit worse than the 0.1% m/m fall we were expecting, but it looks like the floods in Thailand had more of an impact than we had... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
