Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish elections reassuring but slowdown ahead Victory for the governing Civic Platform Party in yesterday’s parliamentary elections in Poland will be welcomed as a sign of business as usual by the markets. But with external headwinds building and... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek budget does not eliminate near-term default risks New fiscal measures announced by the Greek Government may have reduced the risks of an imminent disorderly default. But policymakers still face a battle to agree a deal to cover Greece’s financing... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's balance sheet revisited In light of recent events, this Update provides a brief snapshot of the health of Russia’s public finances. The short point is that while public debt is very low, the budget position is increasingly... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Increasing female participation in Saudi could boost growth Saudi Arabia’s move to allow women to vote (and run) in municipal elections, and to be appointed to the Shoura Council, is an important and positive political move. But the economic benefits are... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of President Putin This weekend’s news that current President Medvedev will step aside to allow Vladimir Putin to run for the presidency at next year’s elections has raised hopes that lower political uncertainty will... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Lessons from the Fall of the Wall The vast bulk of growth in Emerging Europe since the fall of communism can be explained by the better allocation of resources that has resulted from the transition from central planning to a market... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Old economic problems for a new leader The election of a new prime minister is as unlikely to mark a change in the politics of Japan as it is to change the economic outlook. Whilst we sincerely hope new Prime Minister Noda can provide the... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgium's political crisis yet to take its toll Belgium’s severe political deadlock seems to have done little harm so far. But the political crisis is still preventing crucial fiscal tightening from being implemented. The deadlock is also delaying... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Ireland over the worst? There have recently been signs that Ireland’s troubles may be starting to ease, but we still think that it faces a huge challenge to return its public finances to a stable footing. Accordingly, there... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK on the ratings hit-list? The downgrade of US sovereign debt and speculation that France might be next has prompted renewed questions over the UK’s own credit standing. While a UK downgrade is not an imminent threat, it is... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Prod. (Jun.), Trade (Jun.) & BRC Retail Sales (Jul.) The further falls in the markets earlier this morning were followed by yet more disappointing news on the UK’s economic recovery. The recovery was already struggling, but the recent market mayhem has... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Financial market moves could take 0.5% off GDP growth If the recent financial market moves are sustained, the net effect could be to reduce annualised GDP growth by around 0.5%. That would not tip the US into recession. But it supports our long-held view... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final Comp. PMI (Jul.) June’s rise in euro-zone retail sales does little to alter our view that consumers remain badly placed to offset the slowdown in other sectors of the economy. 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the new rescue package solve Greece’s problems? The new details on the second rescue package for Greece that have emerged over the past week or so have not altered our view that Greece’s outstanding debt burden remains unsustainably high. A second... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jul.) July’s fall in euro-zone economic sentiment adds to the evidence of a broad-based economic slowdown. The decline in the economy-wide Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), from 105.1 to 103.2, was... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The beginning of the end for the euro? The continued failure of European policymakers to agree on a new package to support Greece and the growing signs that larger economies like Spain and Italy are being dragged further into the crisis... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
