Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec) & Current Account (Nov) The renewed rise in the current activity component of the Economy Watchers Survey shows that conditions remain strong for now. But the prospect of a slump in demand after the upcoming consumption tax... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2014 hold in store for Emerging Europe? After a torrid run over the past five years, things are looking on the up for Emerging Europe. Of course, the region will remain vulnerable to events in the euro-zone. However, so long as the single... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) November’s euro-zone unemployment and retail sales data provided fresh evidence that the outlook for consumers is improving, but only slowly. 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s political crisis poses growing threat to economy Thailand’s political crisis is showing no sign of nearing an end. A prolonged impasse could disrupt the roll-out of the government’s key public infrastructure projects, and cause further damage to the... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What might Turkey’s political crisis mean for the economy? The eruption of a high-level corruption scandal in Turkey over the past few weeks has cast a spotlight onto the country's political stability. Better governance appears to have played a key role in... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q4 2013 Business sentiment about China’s broad economic outlook recovered this quarter but most firms remain downbeat about their own prospects. Bankers are relaxed about the current state of monetary policy... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to 2014 elections The election calendar in Latin America is fairly quiet next year and even the two standout events - presidential elections in Colombia (in May) and Brazil (in October) - are likely to be relatively... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Coalition politics still likely to hinder Indian reform Markets have rallied in India on the back of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party’s strong showing in state elections, which puts it in a strong position ahead of the general election in a few months... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s political crisis adds to economic concerns Thailand's Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra dissolved parliament today and called for elections "as soon as possible". This step is unlikely to resolve political tensions, given that the opposition... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nelson Mandela’s economic legacy Nelson Mandela’s role in the political development of South Africa is unquestionable, but significant economic progress was also made under his leadership. However, this is now in danger of being... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Elections in the "Fragile Five": threat or an opportunity? Each of the five countries that were the worst hit by the summer currency sell-off (the so-called “Fragile Five”) are due to hold important elections next year. In the short term, uncertainty ahead of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More 'creative destruction' is good news for productivity New data on UK business births and deaths show that both are on the rise. With productivity growth driven largely by the impact of firms entering and exiting industries, evidence of more ‘creative... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political unrest could push Ukraine into an economic crisis The reaction in the Ukrainian financial markets to escalating political protests in Kiev has been smaller than might have been expected. There is a large amount of uncertainty about what will happen... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian growth bottoming out, bumpy recovery ahead Indian GDP growth appears to be bottoming out. Growth accelerated in the third quarter of 2013 from the more than four-year low of the previous quarter. Looking ahead, we believe that the economy's... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will we know if the Plenum reforms are on track? The Third Plenum provided an impressive statement of reform intentions but it changed nothing on the ground. What signposts can we look for to gauge how rapidly new policies are being implemented? 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How disruptive are tensions with China? The recent escalation of the conflict over the Senkaku islands may lead to renewed disruption of bilateral trade and investment between Japan and China. The experience from last year’s flare-up in... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
