China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Today’s GDP figures show that Hong Kong’s economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, on the back of big increases in consumption and exports. Although growth will probably weaken again in Q4... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A limp recovery The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G20 This weekend’s summit should end with pledges by individual G20 governments to implement reforms designed to boost growth. Even if little of this is new, the focus on growth is preferable to the... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the recovery slow when the fiscal squeeze resumes? The recovery’s acceleration just as the pace of fiscal consolidation eased last year could suggest that GDP growth will slow sharply when the fiscal squeeze re-intensifies after the general election... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Growing pile of foreign cash won’t help the domestic economy The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How might the US midterm results affect US energy policy? The shift in the US political spectrum towards the Republicans could result in the restrictions on US oil exports being eased sooner than otherwise. However, the Republicans are likely to put most of... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Talk of snap election lifts markets A snap election could have the virtue of giving the government a stronger mandate as it struggles to push ahead with structural reform. But it would not be a long-term positive if coupled with a delay... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Does Japan need to worry about “Hollowing Out”? Rather than harming the domestic manufacturing sector, outward investment by Japanese firms has boosted domestic activity and exports. Accordingly, the growth of offshore investment should not be... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is there a case for another Plaza Accord? Although co-ordinated exchange rate intervention is taboo at present, it has been attempted in the past and could, in principle, be tried again in future. Admittedly, both the political and economic... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Moment of truth for reform Two recent state election victories have strengthened the position of India’s ruling party, the BJP. More importantly, with the electoral calendar now looking less busy, there is a window of... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf entering an era of softer growth as oil boom fades The sharp slide in oil prices since the summer won’t cause a major headache for the Gulf States, but it does reinforce the point that these economies are set to lose some steam over the coming years... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus 25 years on from the “Fall of the Wall” The fall of the Berlin Wall marked the start of the transition from central planning to market-based economies in Central and Eastern Europe, which in turn paved the way for a sharp rise in prosperity... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Returning presidents dent hopes for reform Dilma Rousseff’s triumph in last month’s Brazilian presidential election made it a hat-trick of victories for incumbents in Latin America this year. Meanwhile, in Uruguay the Frente Amplio party is on... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms don’t alter the economic landscape Although the midterm elections have tipped the balance of political power towards the Republicans and could kick start progress on some trade and energy policies, they don’t alter the economic... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & Final PMIs (Oct.) October’s final composite PMI was slightly below the flash estimate and indicated that the euro-zone economy may have started Q4 on a weak note. 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
