Europe Economics Update Veneto vote highlights Italy and EU policy challenges While the continuing independence vote in Italy’s Veneto region may prove of little direct importance, the poll highlights the breadth of challenges facing Mr Renzi’s new Government and the difficulty... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do elections in Hungary and Turkey hold in store? Ruling parties look set to win handsomely in parliamentary elections in Hungary and local elections in Turkey in the coming weeks. However, while the outcomes may be foregone conclusions, both... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are China’s exporters struggling to compete? The recent slide of the renminbi and February’s weak exports have been linked by some to a supposed loss of competitiveness in China’s export sector. In fact, despite rapid wage growth and trend... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Structural change in China: who is most vulnerable? The past week has seen renewed concern that a slowdown in China will drag on growth in the rest of the emerging world, including Latin America. We think some of these concerns are justified. But while... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Russia’s economy to Western sanctions? The direct economic impact of the sanctions that have apparently been agreed by Western governments on Russia is likely to be limited. But the indirect impact – including the anticipation of further... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Premier Li shrugs off slowdown concerns Today’s weaker-than-expected data won’t do anything to settle investors’ nerves about the state of China’s economy. Hopes for an imminent policy response will also have been dented by Premier Li’s... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A look ahead to Egypt’s presidential election Egyptian presidential elections are due to be held in the coming months with Field Marshal al-Sisi, the leader of July’s “second revolution”, widely tipped to emerge triumphant. However, he would... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Business Outlook Survey (Q1) Today's Business Outlook Survey suggests that demand should start to recover in Q3 after taking a hit from the consumption tax hike next quarter. 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Dilma’s first term in six charts Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, looks set to triumph at elections later this year, despite the fact that economic growth during her time in office has been weaker than under any president since... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb) The plunge in the outlook component of the Economy Watchers Survey in February points to a sharp deterioration in demand in coming months. 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How vulnerable is Japan to geopolitical risks? Events in Ukraine and elsewhere in the emerging world have brought into focus Japan’s exposure to geopolitical risks due to its reliance on imported energy and the yen’s safe-haven role. Barring some... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Creaking current account points to default One year after the death of Hugo Chavez, the former Venezuelan President’s legacy of fiscal largesse and rampant inflation has left the economy on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. With... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much could financial sanctions on Russia hurt the West? If the crisis in Ukraine escalates further, the West seems more likely to impose limited financial sanctions against Russia than to target trade in goods, especially energy. Some Russian officials... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The unchanged GDP growth target is the big news on the opening day of the National People’s Congress, though the government has given itself more wriggle room on growth than may immediately be... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis a political, not economic, crisis for CEE The economies of Central and Eastern European are the most exposed to spillovers from the crisis in Ukraine, but as things stand the economic impact is likely to be limited. Admittedly, the crisis has... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch at the National People’s Congress The National People’s Congress meeting that starts in Beijing this week will give us a chance to review progress on economic reform since the Third Plenum and to gauge where the leadership’s immediate... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
