Asia Economics Update Thai coup restores short-term stability at long-term cost Thailand’s coup should reduce uncertainty in the near term and so may well be welcomed by financial markets. But it brings lasting resolution of the political conflict no closer and further undermines... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia – China deal unlikely to boost European gas prices Proposed exports of Russian gas to China will have limited impact on the potential supply to the rest of Europe. Indeed, the price of LNG may actually be lower than otherwise as a result of the... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A positive step on local government debt Allowing local governments to issue bonds is a key step towards boosting transparency and encouraging stronger oversight over fiscal spending. But a broader rebalancing of the revenues and spending... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Will Egypt’s election be a turning point for the economy? Egypt’s upcoming presidential election has cast the spotlight back onto the country’s bumpy transition to democracy. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who led last summer’s “second revolution”, is widely expected... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gazprom’s China deal not a game changer for Russia’s economy The benefits to the Russian economy from the $400bn deal signed earlier today between Russia and China are likely to be smaller than most seem to think. Instead, the importance of the deal is largely... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Thailand’s crisis any nearer to being resolved? Contrary to some of the initial commentary, we are not convinced that the military’s imposition of martial law has brought resolution of Thailand’s political crisis any closer. There are a number of... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EP elections to show rising reform fatigue Euro-sceptic parties are set to perform strongly at elections for the European Parliament. Although the result may have little impact on the institution itself, it risks undermining national... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgian elections unlikely to break the reform deadlock Upcoming elections in Belgium are unlikely to deliver a decisive victory to any one party. With the main parties divided over fundamental economic and political reforms, we doubt that a new coalition... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Mar.) The surge in machinery orders in March suggests that the recovery in business investment remains on track. 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong BJP mandate could be a game-changer for India For the first time in 30 years, it appears that a national government in India will be free from the chains of coalition politics, giving it a strong platform from which to launch much-needed economic... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Long-run prospects remain upbeat despite growing political concerns The apparent re-emergence of political risk in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the past couple of months has led some commentators to question the region’s longer-term growth... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much could higher female employment boost GDP? Raising female participation in the labour force to the same rate as that for men could boost Japan’s GDP by as much as 13%. However, no advanced economy has achieved parity on this basis, and a more... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – major reforms unlikely (again) The expected re-election of Juan Manuel Santos as Colombia’s president is good news for peace talks with the FARC, but will probably mean that major economic reforms to boost the competitiveness of... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr 14.) April’s retail sales release suggested that GDP growth in the first quarter was a bit stronger than previously thought, but that the rebound in the second quarter may turn out to be a little smaller... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s next government forced to build on sluggish economy As voting in India’s general election draws to a close today, another batch of disappointing data has underlined the economic challenges that will face the new government. 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus What another five years of ANC rule means for South Africa Victory for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa’s general election last week was largely expected and, as such, financial markets have taken the result in their stride. However... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
