Commodities Update How might the US midterm results affect US energy policy? The shift in the US political spectrum towards the Republicans could result in the restrictions on US oil exports being eased sooner than otherwise. However, the Republicans are likely to put most of... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Talk of snap election lifts markets A snap election could have the virtue of giving the government a stronger mandate as it struggles to push ahead with structural reform. But it would not be a long-term positive if coupled with a delay... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Does Japan need to worry about “Hollowing Out”? Rather than harming the domestic manufacturing sector, outward investment by Japanese firms has boosted domestic activity and exports. Accordingly, the growth of offshore investment should not be... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is there a case for another Plaza Accord? Although co-ordinated exchange rate intervention is taboo at present, it has been attempted in the past and could, in principle, be tried again in future. Admittedly, both the political and economic... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Moment of truth for reform Two recent state election victories have strengthened the position of India’s ruling party, the BJP. More importantly, with the electoral calendar now looking less busy, there is a window of... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf entering an era of softer growth as oil boom fades The sharp slide in oil prices since the summer won’t cause a major headache for the Gulf States, but it does reinforce the point that these economies are set to lose some steam over the coming years... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus 25 years on from the “Fall of the Wall” The fall of the Berlin Wall marked the start of the transition from central planning to market-based economies in Central and Eastern Europe, which in turn paved the way for a sharp rise in prosperity... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Returning presidents dent hopes for reform Dilma Rousseff’s triumph in last month’s Brazilian presidential election made it a hat-trick of victories for incumbents in Latin America this year. Meanwhile, in Uruguay the Frente Amplio party is on... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms don’t alter the economic landscape Although the midterm elections have tipped the balance of political power towards the Republicans and could kick start progress on some trade and energy policies, they don’t alter the economic... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & Final PMIs (Oct.) October’s final composite PMI was slightly below the flash estimate and indicated that the euro-zone economy may have started Q4 on a weak note. 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus How bright are India’s growth prospects? Over the medium term India’s economy could, with the right policies, sustain GDP growth of 10%.The BJP’s strong mandate following its election victory in May has raised hopes that wide-ranging... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Precautionary credit line may not be sufficient for Greece The Greek Government appears to have backtracked from plans of a “clean exit” from its EU bail-out programme in December, but it might still be over-estimating the extent to which it can finance... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the strong dollar a threat to the US stock market? Although the US stock market has rebounded in recent weeks, one development that could cap its upside is a further rally in the dollar. A strengthening currency causes exporters to lose market share... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Gold referendum highlights limits of SNB policy Fears that a referendum over the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) gold holdings might prevent the Bank defending its ceiling for the Swiss franc may be overblown. But the referendum highlights political... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stronger activity data increasingly hard to ignore With QE3 done and dusted, the Fed has emphasised that the incoming economic data will determine when interest rates first rise. Our forecasts that the unemployment rate will fall faster than the Fed... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Cooling housing market won’t freeze the recovery Given the perceived boost to the economic recovery from strong gains in house prices over the past year or so, signs that the housing market is beginning to cool may raise concerns that the overall... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
