Global Economics Update G20 talking shop moves to Sydney Policy-makers from some emerging economies may air their grievances about US monetary policy at next week’s G20 gathering, but there is no consensus among them on what the Fed should be doing. More... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How significant are China’s Third Plenum reforms? China's leaders unveiled a detailed and comprehensive plan to reform the economy at the end of last year. The early signs on implementation are encouraging. As a result, we think 2014 will be a... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's political crisis to continue dragging on economy Although Sunday's general election proceeded as scheduled, Thailand's political crisis shows no sign of letting up. While the incumbent Pheu Thai Party almost certainly won the most votes, it could be... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jan.) Small business confidence climbed to yet another fresh high in January. Conditions seem to be more buoyant in the non-manufacturing sector than in manufacturing, but sentiment will likely deteriorate... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market turmoil underlines need for greater EM discrimination Market turbulence in Turkey, Ukraine and now Argentina has led to talk of a new crisis sweepingemerging markets (EMs). But the emerging world has become a far more diverse place over the pastdecade... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shrinking workforce not a major growth risk Contrary to some headlines this week, the ongoing decline in China’s working age population does not pose a major threat to China’s medium-term growth prospects. What matters is what happens to worker... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could local politicians block the restart of nuclear energy? The upcoming gubernatorial election in Tokyo is being widely billed as a referendum on national energy policy, with one prominent candidate running on an anti-nuclear platform. However, the influence... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s political crisis: How will it play out? Thailand’s political tensions have ratcheted up a notch, with the government today declaring a state of emergency in Bangkok. In this Update, we consider several scenarios for how the political crisis... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of Egypt's new constitution The approval of Egypt’s new constitution marks a key political milestone, paving the way for fresh elections to take place in the coming months. However, these could lead to a renewed flare-up in... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India: Fiscal drag in first quarter as government checks deficit Fiscal policy is likely to impose a drag on India’s growth this quarter. Weak revenue growth and the government’s firm commitment to reduce this year’s fiscal deficit have left it with little choice... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM recovery remains slow going Six months ago there were hopeful signs that growth in the emerging world might finally be picking up. But our GDP tracker suggests the upturn in growth seen in mid-2013 may have faltered in the final... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the threat from Turkish corporate FX debt The recent sharp fall in the lira doesn’t appear to have led to significant FX debt servicing problems for Turkish companies. But given the rapid expansion of corporate FX debt over the past decade... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) With December’s hefty monthly growth in retail sales, the consumer recovery seems to be at full steam. That said, the official data is at odds with other evidence and suggests that the retail sector... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A look ahead to the South African elections The key political event in sub-Saharan Africa this year is the elections for the presidency and national assembly in South Africa. Although it seems likely that Jacob Zuma will be re-elected as... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon's fiscal position could go from bad to worse Recent reports that Lebanon could have a new cabinet in a matter of weeks (having not had one for nine months) have raised hopes that the deteriorating public finances may finally be brought under... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Better governance needed for Turkish income “convergence” Improved governance appears to have been a key ingredient in Turkey’s economic success story over the past decade. But further reforms will be needed if Turkish incomes are to continue “converging”... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
