Japan Data Response Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q3) The BoJ’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that household loan demand remains very strong. Corporate loan demand is weaker but record low lending rates and an ongoing easing in lending standards... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Long German coalition talks won't cause much change While the struggle to form a new German Government looks set to continue for another month, this does not mean that major change is afoot. Angela Merkel might make some concessions on a national... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rebound in retail sales not as impressive as it first seems The sharp pick-up in Brazilian retail sales over the past couple of months has fuelled hopes that the country’s consumer-led growth model has kicked back into gear. We’re not so sure. While spending... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senate edging closer to deal to reopen government The Senate appears to be edging closer to a deal to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling. There is a risk that the Republican-controlled House will initially reject that agreement... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Further yen weakness and Nikkei strength ahead Japanese equities are among the most vulnerable to the fall-out from a potential US government default. What’s more, profit margins are already close to record highs, and the pass-through of earlier... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus End of ‘Kirchnerismo’ could unlock Argentina’s potential With mid-term elections approaching and Cristina Fernàndez’s hold on power seemingly slipping,some are betting on Argentina’s economy to roar back. This is premature – in fact, in the near term,a more... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US default would put familiar faces back in the firing line A default by the US government would be without precedent and the potential spillovers to emerging markets are unclear. Nonetheless, it seems likely that the same EMs that were hit during the summer... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response NFIB Small Business Survey (Sep.) September’s NFIB survey suggests that small businesses became more downbeat on the prospects for the economy ahead of the Federal government shutdown. The longer the shutdown continues, the more... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers’ Survey (Sep.) The first increase in the Economy Watchers’ Survey in six months brought the index to even more elevated levels. However, as households are suffering from rising inflation and falling wages, further... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumption tax hike leaves credibility at risk Following a strong Q3 Tankan survey, the Japanese government today confirmed that it will go ahead with the first consumption tax hike next April. However, the decision to offset some of the fiscal... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Tunisia’s government not a major economic setback News that Tunisia’s government has agreed to step down at some point over the next few weeks provides a further reason to think that growth there will remain sluggish and that fiscal reforms may slip... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Renewed political uncertainty adds to Italy's problems Silvio Berlusconi’s decision to withdraw his support for the coalition Government may not trigger elections. But the fragile political situation highlights the huge challenges that Italy faces just to... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Retail Sales (Aug.) & Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The drop in industrial production in August is unlikely to last long. Companies predict a very strong rebound in the following months, and the manufacturing PMI climbed to a new high in September... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep 13.) The further strengthening of the CBI Distributive Trades Survey in September provides reassurance that August’s drop in the official measure of retail sales was just a blip. For now, rising consumer... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) The ongoing improvement in small business confidence suggests that firms are shrugging off the looming consumption tax hike. With spare capacity gradually diminishing, their pricing power seems to be... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel wins strong mandate to stick to her guns While Angela Merkel did not win enough votes to govern alone in yesterday’s election, her strong support was a clear vindication of her domestic and international policy stance so far. She is likely... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
