Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the economic costs of the Ukraine crisis for Russia Although financial markets in Russia have tumbled today, the immediate fallout from the Ukraine crisis for Russia’s economy might well be less severe than many fear. Nonetheless, with growth already... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The latest PMI surveys confirm the continued slowdown in manufacturing. We think the outlook for the sector remains downbeat. Despite the recent surge in liquidity we suspect that policymakers will... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the recent drop in the ruble Events in Ukraine have been one factor behind the fall in the Russian ruble, but domestic problems have played a role too. The central bank (CBR) has already voiced its concern that exchange rate... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can private investment shake-up China's state sector? Policymakers are moving to encourage private investors to play a larger role in China's state sector. However, unless the government is willing to relax control over state firms, investors will have... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Today's data confirm that the economy is picking up speed ahead of the consumption tax hike. However, the first fall in inflation since the start of QQE shows that the BoJ still has more work to do... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on the economic fallout from Ukraine’s unrest It’s difficult to gauge the immediate impact of recent developments in Ukraine on the economy, but historical evidence from similar instances of unrest and political transition suggests that GDP... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much financial support does Ukraine need? As Ukraine’s political transition progresses, attention has turned to the urgent need for external assistance in order to avoid a balance of payments crisis and possibly even a default on its external... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update It’s the institutions, stupid The eruption of anti-government protests in several emerging economies over the past month has led many investors to add “political risk” to the lengthening list of reasons to be cautious on EMs. But... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb & Q1.) February’s strong CBI Distributive Trades Survey should sweep away any concerns fostered by January’s fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes that the recovery in retail spending is... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Feb.) The modest fall in small business confidence in February will likely be followed by a further deterioration in coming months as conditions are set to weaken after April's sales tax hike. 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will a shift in Fed policy send profits into a tailspin? A rise in borrowing costs triggered by less accommodative monetary policy is likely to have an adverse effect on the profits of increasingly-indebted US companies. But we doubt margins will collapse. 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update European elections may hinder national reform efforts A surge in support for euro-sceptic parties at the European Parliament elections in May will probably have little direct impact on the institution itself. But rising support for populist parties may... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Ukraine? It goes without saying that, with events in Ukraine in an almost constant state of flux, predicting what might happen next is close to impossible. In this Update we outline four factors that will be... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb 14.) The rise in February’s German Ifo survey suggests that the economic recovery has continued to pick up some momentum in the early months of 2014. But growth in the euro-zone’s main engine looks set to... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Thailand's political crisis and its economic implications Thailand has been mired in a political crisis since November last year which continues to show no clear sign of resolution. The prolonged impasse has disrupted economic activity and is hurting the... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Prolonged political crisis holding back growth in Thailand Following an inconclusive general election, Thailand’s power vacuum is likely to persist for a couple more months at least. Most attention has been focused on the potential short-term economic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
