Asia Economics Update What will a Jokowi presidency mean for Indonesia? Joko Widodo looks to have won today’s presidential election in Indonesia, and hopes are high that he will make a fresh start on economic reform. However, the constraints of coalition politics, as well... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand is showing signs of post-crisis recovery Thailand's economy appears to be on the road to recovery following the military coup on 22 nd May. But challenges remain and we expect the economy to grow at less than its trend rate for a while yet. 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Indonesia’s election? Indonesia’s presidential election on Wednesday could have a crucial bearing on the future of the country’s economy. Financial markets would favour a victory for Joko Widodo, the current mayor of... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) While today's Tankan points to a contraction in GDP of around 0.5% q/q last quarter, the survey suggests that the recovery will resume in the second half of the year. 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jun.) & Housing Starts (May) According to June's small business confidence, the economy has recovered quickly from the shock to demand caused by the consumption tax hike. 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited growth boost from revised “third arrow” The revised “Growth Strategy” published this week contained some positive surprises. In particular, it proposes a revision of the tax and social security system that could result in a sizeable boost... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s economy remains fragile despite positive political steps A series of conciliatory remarks from both the Russian and Ukrainian authorities in recent days has given rise to hopes that tensions in Eastern Ukraine may start to ease. But despite promising signs... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets shrug off Poland’s political scandal The muted reaction in the financial markets to the scandal currently engulfing the Polish government is testament to the economy’s underlying strength as well as the quality of the country’s... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain: one of the Gulf’s laggards Bahrain’s economy grew at its fastest pace last year since 2008, but this was driven by a rebound in the oil sector which is unlikely to last. On top of this, political tensions remain high and fiscal... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Iraq crisis tops a long list of geopolitical risks There are good reasons to be relaxed about the global economic fall-out from the latest crisis in Iraq, including the possibility that it might actually lead to an improvement in relations between the... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Santos pips Zuluaga in Colombian elections The re-election of Juan Manuel Santos as the president of Colombia will ensure the continuation of peace talks with the FARC, but is unlikely to signal a shift away from the economy’s reliance on... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia leaves rates on hold as another "gas war" looms The Central Bank of Russia was never likely to alter interest rates at its meeting today – while the economy remains weak, high and rising inflation limits the room for policy support. Meanwhile, news... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the impact of the crisis in Iraq The unfolding crisis in Iraq, including the capture of key cities by insurgents, will heighten fears that the country is sliding into civil war. While we suspect that the economic impact of the crisis... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s security concerns not the only constraint on growth Although recent political violence in Pakistan has once again put the country’s poor security situation under the spotlight, it is far from the only problem the country faces. We expect growth in... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Apr.) The inevitable plunge in machinery orders in April following March's surge does not alter our view that investment spending will continue to recover. 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Business Outlook Survey (Q2) Today's Business Outlook Survey points to a sharp drop in output this quarter, but firms still expect demand to recover in the second half of the year. 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
