Asia Economics Weekly Mr Modi’s "first 100 days" prove underwhelming India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is approaching the end of his first hundred days in office on 3rd September with a worrying sense of drift rather than direction. Hopes that he would make a... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is recent euro-zone weakness down to the Ukraine crisis? The latest falls in business confidence and the weakness of euro-zone exports seem to relate partly to the effects of the Ukraine crisis and could therefore be fairly short-lived. But there is a risk... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much of a threat is “hollowing out”? The conventional wisdom is that Japan’s firms have increasingly shifted production facilities abroad in recent years, resulting in a “hollowing out” of the country’s domestic manufacturing sector. But... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Jul.) July’s retail sales figures provided reassurance that consumers are still willing tospend more even though an interest rate hike is looming. Meanwhile, July’s publicfinances showed that the fiscal... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Constraints on banks, not demand, behind loan slump A record RMB2.0trn fall in bank deposits in July, which put pressure on banks’ loan-to-deposit ratios (LDRs), appears to have been the main factor behind last month’s weakness in lending. LDRs are a... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: still struggling at the start of Q3 July’s activity data will do little to ease concerns about the outlook for Russia’s economy. Industrial production accelerated a little and agricultural production strengthened on the back of this... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch: First thoughts on Silva’s entry The death last week of Socialist Party presidential candidate Eduardo Campos and the likelihood that he will be replaced at the top of the party’s ticket by Marina Silva, a former Environment Minister... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Scotland’s independence and the UK’s financial markets If the Scottish people voted for independence next month, it would create a lot of uncertainty andprobably weaken investors’ appetite for Gilts, UK equities and sterling. Admittedly, the... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish slowdown to trigger further pressure for rate cuts Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s election victory and intrigue about the composition of the government have dominated the headlines in Turkey. But the fact that the economy has slowed sharply over the past few... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan presidency means more of the same for Turkey’s economy Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that his victory in yesterday’s presidential election marked a ‘new era’ for Turkey. But for the economy it is likely to mean more of the same. The economic imbalances... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s import ban likely to backfire The economic impact of Russia’s decision to ban imports of some foodstuffs from the EU, the US and other western countries is extremely uncertain, but it seems likely that the biggest loser will be... 7th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three scenarios for Russia’s economy The deepening political crisis between Russia and the US/Europe means that the uncertainties attached to economic forecasts are even greater than usual. In these circumstances it makes more sense to... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil Election Watch: A blueprint for reform There are a number of ways in which the winning candidate in October’s presidential elections could help to turn around Brazil’s struggling economy. But efforts will need to be targeted on structural... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Egypt’s PMI doesn’t signal end of recovery The fall in Egypt’s PMI in July was disappointing in light of the recent improvement in the hard activity data. However, the bigger picture is that the economy is stronger than it was a year ago... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Consumer spending in Emerging Asia set for recovery Emerging Asia’s consumers have been struggling in recent months. Tight labour markets and improving growth prospects point to some pick-up going forward, but high levels of household debt in a number... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How and where the latest sanctions will hit the Russian economy The latest package of sanctions adopted by the EU and the US against Russia will affect the economy in different ways. In the short-term, restrictions on access to western capital markets for selected... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
