China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Credit growth was stable last month despite the slump in economic activity. In most countries, credit growth would slow sharply in response to a shock such as the coronavirus, as households defer... 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update No need to panic about surge in US HY credit spread Although the US high-yield credit spread soared on Monday to its highest level in nearly four years, we don’t think that the US economy is bound to plunge into another deep recession. 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Yes Bank failure adds to mounting downside risks Though the RBI’s takeover of Yes Bank is intended to reduce the direct threat posed by the failing bank to India’s financial stability, the measures that have been implemented could exacerbate... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Virus a growing threat to domestic activity The jump in coronavirus cases in India this week underlines the threat of a wide-scale outbreak in the country. We are now working on the assumption that this takes place and have revised down our... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Syria tensions, coronavirus fears, Turkish credit growth Concerns about the coronavirus outbreak have hit global financial markets this week, but assets in Turkey and Russia have taken a further leg down due to tensions between the two arising from the... 28th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Strong government bond issuance left growth in outstanding broad credit unchanged last month, though weaker corporate borrowing suggests that the uncertainty caused by the coronavirus was starting to... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Three key questions on the Vodafone dispute The Supreme Court’s ruling that Vodafone’s joint venture in India must pay up to US$7bn in retrospective levies and penalties has grabbed headlines over the past few days. In this Update, we answer... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus How worried should we be about regional banks? The profitability of Japan’s regional banks is likely to deteriorate further over the next few years. However, there’s little evidence of asset price bubbles and corporate balance sheets have... 19th February 2020 · 22 mins read
India Economics Update Investment slump may have bottomed out A slump in investment has been the key factor behind the sharp economic slowdown over the past year. A spectacular rebound is not on the cards but investment should recover gradually over the coming... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Will the BoJ introduce a digital currency? Cash is still widely used in Japan and amid concerns about the impact on financial stability, a central bank digital currency for retail transactions is unlikely to be introduced anytime soon. There’s... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FSA’s sweeping reforms, BoJ cuts regional assessment Proposals to allow regional banks to diversify into non-banking business could help to reduce their overreliance on dwindling interest income. But in a sector famed for its conservatism, business... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Mortgage availability rose in Q4, as competition between lenders picked up. But with banks competing on price, rather than lowering their credit standards, we think the housing market fundamentals... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
