India Economics Weekly Banking sector warnings, fiscal deficit target doubts India’s authorities have recently received plaudits for their efforts to clean up the banking sector. But news this week of a fraud scandal at the Punjab & Maharashtra Co-operative Bank (PMC Bank) is... 4th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US corporate credit spreads likely to start widening again soon UK services PMI likely to have dropped back in September (09.30 BST) We think that euro-zone retail sales fell again in August (10.00 BST) US ISM non-manufacturing index probably edged down only... 2nd October 2019 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Monetary easing has so far failed to generate much of a pick-up in credit growth, which remained unchanged last month. This should push policymakers to take further action. 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong’s banks can weather the storm Early-warning indicators suggest that Hong Kong’s banking system is primed for a crisis. And banks face multiple shocks from an economic recession, a housing market correction and capital outflows... 10th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt sustainable but will remain “junk” Under any plausible growth scenario Greece’s credit rating is likely to remain well below investment grade over the coming years. Among other things, this means that Greek bonds will not be included... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Bank mergers add to reasons for optimism The government’s plan to merge several state-run banks is another step in the right direction towards fixing the beleaguered system. It follows a recent increase in the size of the recapitalisation... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Regional banking shake-up gathering momentum Japan’s banking regulator announced this week several measures to accelerate consolidation in the ailing regional banking sector. The changes should discourage banks from taking on too much risk... 30th August 2019 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tighter credit conditions another brake on home sales Concerns around the economic outlook have encouraged banks to tighten mortgage lending standards, offsetting some of the impact of lower interest rates on home sales. Surveys suggest that tightening... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Slower growth likely to undermine bank valuations As the global economy slows, we think that expectations for bank earnings will prove too optimistic and that relatively high bank equity valuations in the US, Canada, Australia, and the Nordics are... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The money supply is not what it used to be Growth in the money supply has picked-up in Australia but we don’t think the money supply has much of a relationship with economic activity. Even so, banks have started to ease lending standards which... 26th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The sky isn’t falling There have been concerns that the recent inversion of the US yield curve foreshadows a global downturn but we think that the recent easing in lending standards means the probability of a recession in... 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Should we be worried about rising loan losses? Loan losses have remained low throughout the housing downturn but we suspect that they will pick up soon, driven by higher write-offs on corporate loans. However, loan losses tend to lag changes in... 22nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Hungarian bank lending unlikely to last The recovery in Hungarian private sector credit has been an important driver of GDP growth in recent years, but we think that the credit boom doesn’t have much further to run. 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Interest rate reform with a side of policy easing A long-awaited shake-up of how China’s banks price loans should in time give policymakers much finer control of bank lending rates and could open the door to a quasi-rate cut as soon as tomorrow. But... 19th August 2019 · 4 mins read
