India Economics Weekly The bad loan cycle is turning The RBI’s confirmation this week that the NPL ratio has dropped over the past year suggests that the government’s efforts to tidy up the banking sector are gradually having an impact. We are... 28th June 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Cash will remain king for a long time yet Cashless transactions in India have risen sharply over the past few years, and recent developments should further support the expansion of digital payments. But while there is a clear willingness from... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s banks: why the next crisis will be worse Turkey’s banks came through last year’s currency crisis without suffering the severe problems that many had feared. But credit growth will probably stay weak, holding back the economic recovery... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Credit growth remained broadly stable in May. Policy easing has not yet been effective in generating a sustained pick-up in credit growth and is one of the reasons why we don’t expect a strong... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why Italy cannot escape from its debt trap There is little that Italy’s government can do to prevent its debt ratio from rising. For a number of reasons, not least of which is its membership of the euro-zone, the three paths to debt reduction... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Banks still likely to pass on rate cut in full Some of Australia’s banks have lowered mortgage rates by less than the reduction in the RBA’s cash rate. That’s hard to justify in light of the recent fall in funding costs. We think that mortgage... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US corporate credit spreads likely to rise much further We think that corporate credit spreads in the US will continue to climb this year, as the economy there slows. Our forecast is for the spreads of speculative-grade bonds to rise by well over 100bp, on... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No change in households’ appetite to spend Reassuringly, following the raft of weak survey data released this week, consumer credit growth held up well in April. And with the labour market healthy and interest rates only likely to rise... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the Baoshang Bank takeover The first regulatory takeover of a Chinese bank in more than two decades is a reminder that the balance sheets of many regional lenders are far less healthy than they claim. China’s interbank market... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for housing market has brightened Proposed changes by Australia’s bank regulator will increase the maximum loan size for some borrowers. While that is unlikely to bolster housing demand much at this stage, as the RBA lowers interest... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi credit growth to remain subdued Credit growth in Saudi Arabia has started to pick up and, with monetary conditions set to be loosened in line with the US, it is likely to strengthen further over the next couple of years. That said... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code is finding its feet Three years to the week that it was ratified, India’s bankruptcy code is now making a significant difference to the speed at which bankruptcy cases are resolved and the amount that creditors are able... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What might trigger a hard landing? Structural headwinds will weigh on China’s growth rate over the coming decade. If well managed, this slowdown will be gradual. But a more abrupt adjustment shouldn’t be ruled out. We see two main... 16th May 2019 · 28 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong credit growth no reason to cheer Strong business credit growth could be a sign that firms are becoming more upbeat about the outlook for business investment. In reality though, the data tend to lag actual investment spending and we... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
