China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) The latest slowdown in lending highlights the need for further monetary easing if policymakers are to succeed in putting a floor beneath growth. 12th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Time to worry about Russia’s household credit boom? The recent pace of Russian household lending looks frothy, but the central bank already appears to have taken some of the steam out of the credit boom. Even if household loans start turning sour... 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Investment slump has bottomed out Investment growth collapsed to a near four-year low in Q1. While a spectacular rebound will remain elusive, investment should recover gradually over the coming quarters as election-related uncertainty... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal deficit target doubtful, banking code amended India’s fiscal deficit in Q1 of FY19/20 provides little assurance about the government’s ability to meet the 3.3% target that it set in the union budget last month. We think that the finance ministry... 2nd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Falling profitability to weigh on investment The slowdown in domestic economic activity along with global trade tensions is becoming more of a concern for businesses in both countries. That means that sentiment has not been bolstered by the... 30th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Capital requirement concerns are overblown Commercial banks in New Zealand have kicked up a fuss over a proposal by the Reserve Bank to increase the level of capital the banks are required to hold. By contrast, we believe the new rules won’t... 25th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US rates and Gulf credit, Oman tightens fiscal policy Central banks in the Gulf will follow the US Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates next week, but past experience suggests that this is unlikely to provide a significant boost to the economy... 25th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Credit boom bypassing the domestic economy Credit is growing at its strongest rate since the early 1990s. Given that investment growth has started to slow, the spike in private debt seems odd at first glance but much of it appears to have been... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks concentrated in the usual suspects Economic and financial vulnerabilities remain low across much of the emerging world. But banking sector vulnerabilities are high in Turkey and China. And we are now explicitly forecasting a sovereign... 24th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Low credit spreads reflect excessive optimism We think that Japan’s headline CPI inflation dropped to 0.6% y/y in June (00.30 BST) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have edged up in May (13.30 BST) University of Michigan US consumer confidence... 18th July 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) Lenders reported a drop in mortgage availability in Q2. And while that decline is expected to reverse in Q3, we doubt that will translate into a rebound in mortgage lending. Meanwhile, credit... 18th July 2019 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) A shift toward fiscal easing helped to push up credit growth last month but the pace of lending remained relatively weak and still looks consistent with a further slowdown in economic growth. 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Regional bank tie-up a step in the right direction Regional banks’ health has deteriorated as the population is shrinking and the number of firms is falling. As such, the cooperation between two of the largest regional banks that was announced this... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly (Another) fraud scandal at PNB, vehicle sales slump The latest fraud scandal engulfing Punjab National Bank – one of India’s largest state-owned banks – is a stark reminder that recent measures to revive the banking sector need to be supplemented with... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z government bond yields likely to be low for longer Christine Lagarde’s nomination as ECB President makes us even more optimistic about the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone and reinforces our view that corporate bonds there will... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Mixed signals to keep Bank on hold The Bank of Canada is likely to upgrade its GDP growth forecasts in its new Monetary Policy Report, but we think that its expectations will prove too optimistic. While Governor Stephen Poloz may... 3rd July 2019 · 6 mins read
