China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Equities likely to rise more slowly in 2020 than 2019 Despite recent optimism about trade and Brexit, we doubt that equities in developed markets (DMs) will fare as well next year as they have in 2019. That said, those in the UK will be an exception in... 17th December 2019 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code improved, NBFC relief The amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and easing of lending rules for shadow banks that were approved in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) this week should provide limited... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Growth in outstanding broad credit was unchanged last month, despite recent monetary loosening by the People’s Bank. This suggests that more aggressive action will be needed to shore up growth. 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ target shorter bond yields? The IMF has suggested that the Bank of Japan could target shorter bond yields in order to steepen the yield curve and support the profitability of financial institutions. But the benefits to insurance... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Central bank asset purchases likely to keep yields low Although we think that the Fed is now done cutting rates, we think that more easing is coming outside the US and that major central banks will remain net buyers of bonds. With this in mind, we... 28th November 2019 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update Banking sector requires governance reform We couldn’t agree more with recent comments from RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das that much better governance is needed to improve the long-term health of the banking sector. The problem stems in large... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks’ efforts are doing little to boost credit While policy loosening has caused a marked easing of financial conditions around the world, lending growth is still quite subdued. We doubt that this will change, particularly since demand for loans... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s banking risks re-emerging The boom in credit in Qatar since the turn of the year has caused a renewed build-up of vulnerabilities in the banking sector. Severe balance sheets strains should be avoided, but the recent pace of... 13th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: credit recovery has some legs, but brings risks The recent pick-up in bank lending in Turkey probably has further to run over the coming months, which will provide some support to the economic recovery. But the pace and composition of new lending... 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Monetary easing is failing to lift bank loan growth, while fiscal constraints are weighing on broader credit expansion. This should increase pressure on the PBOC to loosen policy more decisively. 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Proportional” deal, renminbi, bank mergers A “Phase One” US-China trade deal that partially rolls back tariffs now appears within reach and, as a result, we no longer expect further renminbi weakness in the remaining weeks of this year. But... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Labour market begins to loosen The jump in the unemployment rate in September is evidence that the labour market has entered a loosening phase. The Bank of Japan reiterated that the output gap was its key gauge of price pressures... 7th November 2019 · 10 mins read
