Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: where do the risks lie? Non-performing loans are likely to climb in many EMs as output and incomes collapse, potentially forcing policymakers in some countries to step in and recapitalise banks. The risks are greatest in... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Credit rating downgrade wouldn’t be a big deal S&P lowered the Australian credit rating outlook to negative this week and given the likely deterioration in the fiscal balance, Australia could lose its AAA rating before long. But we don’t think... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Output to fall more than during global financial crisis Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay... 8th April 2020 · 19 mins read
US Economics Update Could the pandemic trigger another banking crisis? The coronavirus-related recession will lead to a marked increase in defaults on bank loans but, while that will hit earnings and justifies the sharp sell-off in banking stocks, the greatly improved... 7th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Virus crisis will cause lasting damage to banks Government loan guarantees will help to limit the damage to banks from defaults in the short term. But the banks will inevitably be weakened by the crisis, leaving them with more non-performing loans... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: banks more vulnerable than in currency crisis Turkey’s banks muddled through the currency crisis two years ago, but they are now in a weaker position to confront the economic and financial market fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. At the very... 2nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Slowest growth in four decades Strict containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak in India will have severe economic repercussions. We think the economy will grow by just 1% in 2020, which would be the weakest pace... 2nd April 2020 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Update Universal Credit claims point to unemployment leap Reports of a further leap in new claims for Universal Credit suggest that the government support designed to keep people employed isn’t working and that the unemployment rate could jump from 3.9% in... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policymakers hold back, rupee drops to record low Both Prime Minister Modi and RBI Governor Das took cautious steps in their responses to the coronavirus outbreak this week, but left the door open for more aggressive measures. With domestic virus... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged but monetary conditions still easing Commercial banks unexpectedly did not lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today. Despite this, monetary conditions are still easing as the People’s Bank (PBOC) has been using a broad set of instruments to... 20th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more easing to come from the BSP The central bank in the Philippines is likely to ease further in the months ahead after opting to cut its main policy rate by 50bps today. The BSP has not yet introduced loan programmes or targeted... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Banking risks add to pressure on ECB to act quickly The economic slump in the euro-zone increasingly threatens to trigger a wider financial sector crisis. In order to head off the risks to the banking sector, the ECB will need to provide unequivocal... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus to lift corporate defaults Australian firms were in good shape on the eve of the coronavirus outbreak, but the impending collapse in foreign tourism and weaker retail spending will lift loan write-offs in those sectors. The... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big a risk is Covid-19 to euro-zone banks? The coronavirus poses a significant risk to euro-zone banks. Based on our current forecast for a 1% or so decline in GDP this year, loan losses would be manageable. But a much deeper recession may... 11th March 2020 · 4 mins read
