China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) A jump in government bond issuance helped push credit growth to a 21-month high in May. The acceleration in credit growth has further to run and will add fuel to the economic recovery. 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Apr.) The record fall in net loans to households and another surge in borrowing by businesses in April is an indication of how the lockdown has affected consumer spending and business revenues. These trends... 2nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Private creditor debt talks, SA budget constraints The past week has brought private sector debt relief a step closer for the region, although we suspect that talks will drag on. Similarly, the road ahead for an ambitious infrastructure spending plan... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Cash to remain king for a long while yet Amid the severe economic damage that the coronavirus and containment measures have caused, one potential positive is the greater prevalence of cashless payments as people make more purchases from home... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable are Russia’s banks? A deep dive into Russia’s banking system provides comfort that, while there are pockets of vulnerability beneath the surface, the economy is unlikely to experience a financial crisis like it did in... 20th May 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Credit growth accelerated further last month, a trend that will probably continue given signals from the PBOC’s Q1 monetary report published over the weekend that more stimulus measures are in the... 11th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina jostling with creditors, severe GDP falls This week brought further evidence that Argentina’s government and bondholders remain far apart on a restructuring deal and, unless both sides thrash out something quickly, talks could get bogged down... 7th May 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Credit won’t hold back the recovery, more to come from BoE There can be little doubt about how bad the recession will be now that the Bank of England has joined us and the OBR in forecasting that GDP will fall by 25-30%. But even so UK banks should be able to... 7th May 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE focus will shift from liquidity to monetary policy The Bank of England has been expanding its balance sheet during the coronavirus crisis mainly to fulfil its role of lender of last resort in a liquidity crisis. That will probably remain the focus for... 6th May 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dwindling hopes of a quick post-virus recovery The severe weakness in India’s labour market and growing risk aversion among banks suggest that the virus and the measures to contain it have already inflicted lasting damage on the economy. Even so... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin American banks: where do the risks lie? Latin American banks are generally in good shape, but the sheer scale of the fall in output and limited policy responses to protect incomes in parts of the region mean that the rise in bad loans could... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank loan losses to approach GFC levels We estimate that banks will have to absorb about £50bn of loan losses from corporate and household defaults as a result of the coronavirus crisis. If anything, the risks are for even bigger losses... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Apr.) and Euro-zone Bank Lending (Mar.) The largest-ever slump in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in April comes as no surprise but, along with the 3.9% q/q fall in Belgian GDP in Q1, it underlines the depth of the euro-zone’s recession... 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update A closer look at the vulnerabilities in Nigerian banks One consequence of the current crisis is that bad loans in Nigeria’s banking sector are likely to rise sharply. While the government would surely respond to problems at individual banks with capital... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update The fallout from the Franklin Templeton wind down The RBI’s new special liquidity window should help ease redemption pressure on Indian mutual funds, which have come under strain since Franklin Templeton’s announcement on Thursday that it has been... 27th April 2020 · 3 mins read
