Japan Economics Weekly Bankruptcies set to rise despite public loan provision Loan demand is set to surge as firms’ revenues slump in the wake of virus outbreak. Unfortunately, Japanese banks will probably respond to the economic downturn by tightening lending standards. Most... 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Do funding spreads signal a credit crunch? A rising LIBOR OIS spread points to nervousness on interbank funding markets. But for the mortgage market, any future credit crunch is more likely to come from lenders’ concerns about the economy... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Lockdown will worsen banking sector strains The government’s reluctance to provide significant financial support for firms and households during lockdown means that non-performing loans are likely to surge. One legacy of the coronavirus in... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) Mortgage availability is set to collapse in Q2. Part of that will reflect limitations caused by physical distancing measures due to the coronavirus. Yet broader concerns about the economy, house... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Banking system should withstand corona shock Regional banks in Japan will face mounting loan losses due to the virus outbreak. But as their linkages with other financial institutions are small, this won’t precipitate a financial crisis. 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Will Australia’s bank tighten lending standards? Australian banks have passed through the RBA’s recent cuts to some but not all of their lending rates and have tightened lending standards a bit. With banks now in better shape than during the global... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC ramps up easing but more still to come The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken yet another step to help banks and borrowers weather the ongoing economic weakness and is preparing to lower interest rates further in the coming months. 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: where do the risks lie? Non-performing loans are likely to climb in many EMs as output and incomes collapse, potentially forcing policymakers in some countries to step in and recapitalise banks. The risks are greatest in... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Credit rating downgrade wouldn’t be a big deal S&P lowered the Australian credit rating outlook to negative this week and given the likely deterioration in the fiscal balance, Australia could lose its AAA rating before long. But we don’t think... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Output to fall more than during global financial crisis Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay... 8th April 2020 · 19 mins read
US Economics Update Could the pandemic trigger another banking crisis? The coronavirus-related recession will lead to a marked increase in defaults on bank loans but, while that will hit earnings and justifies the sharp sell-off in banking stocks, the greatly improved... 7th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Virus crisis will cause lasting damage to banks Government loan guarantees will help to limit the damage to banks from defaults in the short term. But the banks will inevitably be weakened by the crisis, leaving them with more non-performing loans... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: banks more vulnerable than in currency crisis Turkey’s banks muddled through the currency crisis two years ago, but they are now in a weaker position to confront the economic and financial market fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. At the very... 2nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Slowest growth in four decades Strict containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak in India will have severe economic repercussions. We think the economy will grow by just 1% in 2020, which would be the weakest pace... 2nd April 2020 · 13 mins read
