India Economics Weekly Dwindling hopes of a quick post-virus recovery The severe weakness in India’s labour market and growing risk aversion among banks suggest that the virus and the measures to contain it have already inflicted lasting damage on the economy. Even so... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin American banks: where do the risks lie? Latin American banks are generally in good shape, but the sheer scale of the fall in output and limited policy responses to protect incomes in parts of the region mean that the rise in bad loans could... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank loan losses to approach GFC levels We estimate that banks will have to absorb about £50bn of loan losses from corporate and household defaults as a result of the coronavirus crisis. If anything, the risks are for even bigger losses... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Apr.) and Euro-zone Bank Lending (Mar.) The largest-ever slump in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in April comes as no surprise but, along with the 3.9% q/q fall in Belgian GDP in Q1, it underlines the depth of the euro-zone’s recession... 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update A closer look at the vulnerabilities in Nigerian banks One consequence of the current crisis is that bad loans in Nigeria’s banking sector are likely to rise sharply. While the government would surely respond to problems at individual banks with capital... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update The fallout from the Franklin Templeton wind down The RBI’s new special liquidity window should help ease redemption pressure on Indian mutual funds, which have come under strain since Franklin Templeton’s announcement on Thursday that it has been... 27th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bankruptcies set to rise despite public loan provision Loan demand is set to surge as firms’ revenues slump in the wake of virus outbreak. Unfortunately, Japanese banks will probably respond to the economic downturn by tightening lending standards. Most... 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Do funding spreads signal a credit crunch? A rising LIBOR OIS spread points to nervousness on interbank funding markets. But for the mortgage market, any future credit crunch is more likely to come from lenders’ concerns about the economy... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Lockdown will worsen banking sector strains The government’s reluctance to provide significant financial support for firms and households during lockdown means that non-performing loans are likely to surge. One legacy of the coronavirus in... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) Mortgage availability is set to collapse in Q2. Part of that will reflect limitations caused by physical distancing measures due to the coronavirus. Yet broader concerns about the economy, house... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Banking system should withstand corona shock Regional banks in Japan will face mounting loan losses due to the virus outbreak. But as their linkages with other financial institutions are small, this won’t precipitate a financial crisis. 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Will Australia’s bank tighten lending standards? Australian banks have passed through the RBA’s recent cuts to some but not all of their lending rates and have tightened lending standards a bit. With banks now in better shape than during the global... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC ramps up easing but more still to come The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken yet another step to help banks and borrowers weather the ongoing economic weakness and is preparing to lower interest rates further in the coming months. 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
