Asia Economic Outlook Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation... 20th July 2022 · 34 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to avoid recession narrowly We expect the economy to avoid a recession only narrowly, as higher interest rates trigger a contraction in residential investment and weakness in consumption growth. Core inflation has been stronger... 19th July 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will reduce pressure on Yield Curve Control Supply shortages and continued virus caution will result in a weaker recovery in Japan than most anticipate. With wage growth sluggish too, the Bank of Japan won’t see a need to lift its policy rates... 18th July 2022 · 18 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession won’t stop aggressive ECB tightening The euro-zone looks on course to fall into a mild recession in the coming quarters. Real incomes are falling, business sentiment has plummeted and growth in the region’s export markets is slowing... 14th July 2022 · 29 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM default risks: more than meets the eye The effects of the pandemic followed by the war in Ukraine have pushed a growing number of EMs into debt distress. And while some (Tunisia, Ghana) look likely to follow Sri Lanka’s path into default... 14th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tough times ahead as Pakistan agrees IMF deal The resumption of the loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. But the cuts to government spending that the... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (June) A further slight pick-up in credit growth last month was given a big helping hand from government bond issuance as local governments were instructed to issue their annual allocation of bonds by the... 11th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity holding up this year but will weaken in 2023 The latest data show that consumer spending is defying downbeat sentiment and rising interest rates by continuing to strengthen. Indeed, we have been arguing for some time that strong financial... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook More frontloading to come Strong economic growth and surging inflation have prompted the RBI to kick-start its hiking cycle and we think the central bank will continue to frontload policy tightening. In all, we think the repo... 7th July 2022 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana and the IMF: big hurdles to debt sustainability The decision by Ghana’s government to turn to the IMF will help to restore some calm among investors over the country’s poor public finances. But a very large fiscal squeeze is needed to restore debt... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The sharp slowdown in money growth is set to continue as the Fed’s monetary tightening ramps up, but the resilience of bank lending suggests the impact on the economy will be limited. Payrolls Drop-In... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (May) The more muted rise in unsecured borrowing in May suggests the cost of living crisis and recent plunge in consumer confidence are prompting households to exercise a bit more caution. That adds to... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update SAMA likely has more to do to ease liquidity concerns Reports that the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) has injected liquidity into the banking sector appears to be a consequence of a lack of FX intervention (despite high oil prices), tight fiscal policy and... 30th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack High inflation fuels strikes and protests High inflation seems to be causing growing unrest in the region, which threatens to be economically disruptive and raise fiscal concerns. Recent protests in Ecuador have hit its oil sector hard, while... 28th June 2022 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack Domestic weakness frees up ports for exports The Omicron virus wave in China appears to have eased global shipping bottlenecks rather than worsened them as many had feared. Firms were able to re-route shipments through other ports to avoid... 28th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian sovereign default more symbolic at this stage Russia’s government has now reportedly defaulted on its foreign-currency denominated debt for the first time since 1918, but this is a largely symbolic event that is unlikely to have an additional... 27th June 2022 · 3 mins read
