Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Governments collapse, Russia set to default Governments in Israel and Bulgaria collapsed this week which may delay support to households over the cost of living. The threat to Bulgaria’s economy is probably greater, as political instability... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Tighter global financing conditions, Zambia’s debt African financial markets are not insulated from the tightening of global external financing conditions, and recent currency weakness and rising sovereign bond yields in the region will only add to... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key questions on capital controls in Turkey The recent falls in the Turkish lira have led to increased speculation that, with the CBRT showing no sign of willingness to raise interest rates, policymakers will be forced to turn to capital... 16th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s IMF review, Mexican industry recovering This week's staff-level agreement between the IMF and Argentina, for the first review of its $44bn deal, gave little assurance that the Fund will knuckle down on the country’s growing inflation and... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Credit growth was stronger than expected last month. It is likely to accelerate following the clear signal in late May that policymakers want banks to step up lending. More policy easing is likely... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Activity holding up and price pressures strengthening Real economic growth is slowing rather than collapsing in the face of the twin drags of higher inflation and rising interest rates. The Chancellor’s latest fiscal handout will help support GDP in the... 8th June 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Sovereign debt and current account risks are building The effects of the war in Ukraine and strong dollar are causing sovereign debt risks to build in a handful of frontier markets with weak balance sheets, while public debt dynamics in parts of Emerging... 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s privatisation drive and lessons from history Egypt’s government is set to kick off its latest privatisation drive later this year, but its track record provides little hope that it will meet targets. The authorities are likely to retain a high... 6th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but weakness on the horizon GDP across Central Europe expanded strongly in Q1 and the latest figures for March and April suggest that activity has remained resilient since the war in Ukraine started. Russia’s economy has not... 31st May 2022 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Apr.) The solid rise in unsecured borrowing in April suggests that households have turned to credit to support their spending as the cost of living squeeze has intensified. But consumers do not yet appear... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Policymakers trying to revive property sales China’s beleaguered property developers may soon see some respite both from their inability to borrow at reasonable rates and from sliding property sales. Last week, PBOC Governor said that the... 30th May 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia default, Hungary budget plans, dovish CNB? A Russian sovereign default moved a step closer this week, although in practice it’s unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. In the meantime, high oil and gas revenues have given the... 27th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Monetary tightening stepped up A majority of central banks in the region hiked interest rates over the past month. In the Gulf, central banks raised interest rates in line with the Federal Reserve, although this won’t necessarily... 26th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising interest costs add to pressure on EZ households We estimate that euro-zone households’ debt interest payments will quadruple as a share of income over the next couple of years as the ECB raises its policy rate. This will put yet further strain on... 24th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tweak to Yield Curve Control still on the table The Bank of Japan’s attempt to relieve pressure on the Yield Curve Control framework by offering to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) at yields of 0.25% for as long... 23rd May 2022 · 10 mins read
