Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine default, Russia return to fiscal normality? Policymakers in Ukraine devalued the hryvnia this week and asked creditors to suspend debt repayments, which will free up funds for the government, but will add to inflation and increase balance sheet... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Looser fiscal/tighter monetary mix whoever is the Prime Minister If members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had hoped that this week's data releases would provide a clear steer on whether to follow other major central banks and raise interest rates by at... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Although June’s retail sales figures were boosted in some areas by the extra Jubilee bank holiday and dragged down in others, the underlying trend is that the surge in prices is weighing on sales... 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession threat broadens The outlook for the world economy has darkened again and we have reduced our forecasts for all major economies, leaving them further below the consensus of economists. We now anticipate recessions in... 21st July 2022 · 49 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures provided more evidence that the government’s fiscal position is worse than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted back in March. This may limit the ability... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t stop Italy’s spreads from widening It looks like Italy is heading for an early general election. While that won’t necessarily cause an economic and financial crisis, bond spreads are likely to widen regardless of what the ECB announces... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Increased risk of recession The Bank’s aggressive policy tightening will weigh heavily on domestic demand, with consumption growth set to slow sharply while residential investment plunges back to pre-pandemic levels. There is... 20th July 2022 · 20 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tightening credit conditions point to higher yields The Q2 ECB bank lending survey showed a tightening in credit standards for commercial property lending in the first half of the year, with expectations for a further squeeze in H2. With the cost of... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation... 20th July 2022 · 34 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to avoid recession narrowly We expect the economy to avoid a recession only narrowly, as higher interest rates trigger a contraction in residential investment and weakness in consumption growth. Core inflation has been stronger... 19th July 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will reduce pressure on Yield Curve Control Supply shortages and continued virus caution will result in a weaker recovery in Japan than most anticipate. With wage growth sluggish too, the Bank of Japan won’t see a need to lift its policy rates... 18th July 2022 · 18 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession won’t stop aggressive ECB tightening The euro-zone looks on course to fall into a mild recession in the coming quarters. Real incomes are falling, business sentiment has plummeted and growth in the region’s export markets is slowing... 14th July 2022 · 29 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM default risks: more than meets the eye The effects of the pandemic followed by the war in Ukraine have pushed a growing number of EMs into debt distress. And while some (Tunisia, Ghana) look likely to follow Sri Lanka’s path into default... 14th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tough times ahead as Pakistan agrees IMF deal The resumption of the loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. But the cuts to government spending that the... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (June) A further slight pick-up in credit growth last month was given a big helping hand from government bond issuance as local governments were instructed to issue their annual allocation of bonds by the... 11th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity holding up this year but will weaken in 2023 The latest data show that consumer spending is defying downbeat sentiment and rising interest rates by continuing to strengthen. Indeed, we have been arguing for some time that strong financial... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
