Global Economics Update Weak demand starting to weigh on bank lending Although credit growth in advanced economies remained strong in September, it has largely been used to help economies cope with the effects from rising costs and inflation. But lending criteria is now... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Much weaker than expected credit growth – and an extremely unusual outright fall in lending to households – again underlines the difficulties policymakers are facing stimulating growth while activity... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Higher rates curb demand for loans Higher interest rates have dramatically curbed the demand for home mortgages and auto loans, but there is only limited evidence of banks tightening lending standards, which suggests that they expect... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Problems for Korean corporates piling up Yields on commercial paper in Korea have continued to rise over the past week despite aggressive intervention by the authorities as they struggle to calm the markets. But even if the situation... 4th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Strikes in SA, naira under pressure, Ethiopia ceasefire South Africa is on the cusp of large public sector strikes which will deal another blow to the recovery and raise the risk of fiscal slippage just a week after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi banking sector, UAE-Saudi quarrel, COP27 The surge in Saudi interbank rates in recent weeks could cause credit growth to slow more quickly than we currently expect. Elsewhere, reports point to growing discontent in the UAE with Saudi Arabia... 3rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria and the risks stemming from demonetisation The Nigerian central bank’s plans to replace high-value bank notes by the end of January will, if India’s experience in 2016 is anything to go by, disrupt activity and fail to address some of the... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Sep.) The increase in precautionary household saving in September and weakening demand for credit poses an extra downside risk to our forecast that the economy will contract by 2% during a recession. These... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (September) Money and lending growth accelerated in September, but the latest Bank Lending Survey revealed that there was a sharp drop in loan demand and that banks have become much more cautious about lending... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Lira-isation” policies are no cure for Turkey’s problems Policymakers in Turkey have doubled down on their new economic model of “lira-isation” by pursuing more extreme de-dollarisation policies in recent months. These appear to be having an impact in terms... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada avoids UK-style market fallout Canada is unlikely to succumb to the same crisis currently afflicting UK markets, but those problems are a reminder that rapidly rising interest rates have a habit of breaking things. In Canada’s case... 14th October 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update End of QT may come sooner than first thought While the Fed isn’t likely to follow the Bank of England in pausing QT in response to upward pressure on long-term government bond yields, the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet could end sooner and... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Credit growth surprised to the upside last month, edging up thanks to official efforts to boost lending via policy banks. But wider appetite for borrowing still appears depressed, which will probably... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will the Fed’s tightening trigger financial instability? The recent liquidity issues faced by UK pensions funds and problems at a few European banks have led to speculation that the Fed’s interest rate hikes will trigger some form of financial instability... 7th October 2022 · 9 mins read
