Europe Economics Update ECB QT would exacerbate bond market risks Reports that the ECB will soon start debating QT add to the risks facing euro-zone government bond markets. While the Bank could still expand its holdings of peripheral sovereign debt through the PEPP... 12th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile goes back to the drawing board The surprisingly strong rejection of Chile’s proposed new constitution has eased concerns about a radical shake up of the country’s economic model. But the constitutional process is set to continue... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the energy price cap for UK markets Notwithstanding the big policy announcements in the UK this week, we still think that the pound and the UK stock market will struggle over the rest of this year, but expect 10-year Gilts to rally. In... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) There was a further deceleration in credit growth last month, with a new wave of lockdowns adding to the problems in the housing market that have been hitting credit demand. Credit growth will... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch Truss makes the Bank work harder Although the new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, has saved some of the blushes at the Bank of England by reducing the probable peak in inflation from at least 14.5% to around 10.5%, the resulting support... 8th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: nearing the end of the tightening cycle The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today, following on from its larger-than-expected 100bp rate increase to 10.75% yesterday, suggests that its tightening cycle is drawing to... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Quantitative tightening not weighing on loan demand The Bank of Japan’s assets are falling for the first time since it embraced large-scale easing a decade ago, as banks are repaying emergency funds they borrowed during the pandemic. However, this is... 6th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Global backdrop exposing EMs with weak balance sheets Tighter global monetary policy and the strength of the US dollar continue to punish a number of frontier markets with weak sovereign balance sheets. Meanwhile, worries about Turkey’s balance of... 5th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political risks back in the spotlight The region faces a busy political calendar. Chileans head to the polls on Sunday to vote on a new constitution which would usher in sweeping changes to the country’s current economic model. While the... 30th August 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jul.) Net lending to the commercial property sector fell back in July, as mounting economic headwinds and stretched valuations weighed on investor sentiment. We expect lending will see further declines over... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul.) While mortgage approvals ticked up in July, that only reversed a fraction of their previous decline. And the drag on buyer demand from the ongoing increase in mortgage rates and surging energy bills... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jul.) The decent rise in consumer credit values in July may overstate the current resilience of real consumer spending as credit is being supported by the rapid increases in consumer prices. Either way, as... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account shows hawks in ascendancy The >10,000 word account of the ECB’s July meeting confirms that a large majority of policymakers favoured a 50bps rate hike and are focused more on their mandate to contain inflation than on trying... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The Bank’s mandate does not require radical change It’s clear in hindsight that the Bank of England kept monetary policy too loose for too long during the recovery from the pandemic. But that does not mean that the mandate given to it by the... 23rd August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel steps up tightening with a 75bp hike The Bank of Israel stepped up its tightening cycle with a 75bp interest rate hike, to 2.00%, today as it became more concerned about the strength of inflation. Our previously-hawkish view for interest... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s plan for state banks, Q2 GDP Suggestions this week by Brazil's presidential front runner Lula that state banks will play a bigger role would only aggravate some of the underlying problems in the country’s economy. Elsewhere, the... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
