UK Economics Money & Credit (Feb.) The leap in credit card borrowing in February and smaller increase in household savings could suggest that the cost of living crisis is already starting to bite. But we think it is more likely that... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update IMF & Argentina: a historical guide to restoring confidence History suggests that for an IMF deal to restore market confidence, a credible shift towards policy tightening which delivers positive economic results, alongside favourable external conditions, is... 23rd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka running out of options Sri Lanka has no easy choices left as it looks to dig itself out of its economic mess. Outright default or a financing deal with China remain options, but the government appears to be favouring an... 23rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing public debt risks in Africa In this Update, we roll out our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. The pandemic has increased debt burdens across the continent and, with... 21st March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Contagion risks to CEE banks likely to be limited A close look at banking sector linkages in Central and Eastern Europe provides encouragement that there is little direct exposure to Russia and Ukraine and that any indirect exposure through a Western... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tightening would require wage growth of at least 2% Governor Kuroda admitted last week that inflation could hit the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in April but stressed that “that in no way signifies there will be a revision of our current monetary policy”... 21st March 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus unlikely to be source of financial instability While Cyprus’s strong ties to Russia make it is vulnerable to recession, the country’s public finances and banking sector are in better shape than they were before the crisis which took place a decade... 17th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian banks: immediate crisis averted, but risks loom Russia’s banking sector has held up better than might have been expected through the initial stage of the crisis due to large, timely and widespread policy support. But banks will now face the... 16th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of Russia’s impending default Russia’s government appears to be heading towards a default on its foreign currency debts for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution. This won’t affect the Russian government’s ability to... 14th March 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Broad credit growth was much weaker than expected last month, reversing much of the acceleration of the past few months. This suggests that more easing measures will be needed to meet the policy... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor War in Ukraine heightens risks in fragile EMs Financial markets in Central Europe have been hit hard by the contagion from the war in Ukraine, but spill-overs to other EMs have been limited so far. If the war were to result in a sustained period... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into Russian corporate debt risks The growing list of countries imposing restrictions on Russia’s energy exports has raised the likelihood of a deeper contraction in Russia’s economy this year and a wave of corporate defaults. This... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial contagion and known unknowns The rest of the world’s direct financial exposure to Russia has fallen in recent years and, in aggregate, is now small. This limits the risk of financial contagion from the collapse in Russia’s... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Why Argentina’s IMF deal is on shaky ground Argentina’s government reached a fresh IMF deal which, assuming it passes through Congress, will lead to a gradual shift towards more market-friendly policies. However, many of the economic... 8th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Broadening price pressures to prompt rate hikes RBA Governor Lowe noted in a recent speech that the Bank no longer has specific criteria for deciding whether inflation is sustainably in the target range. But he highlighted that along with the... 7th March 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the Russia default risk? Russia has already suspended the transfer of coupon payments on local-law sovereign debt to foreign investors, and the likelihood that the government and companies are unable or unwilling to make... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
