UK Economics Update Stagflation may require rate hikes to 3% and cuts thereafter While raising interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) today, from 1.25% to 1.75%, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) suggested that rates will probably have to rise further to knock on the head the... 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget pain, SA's latest electricity plan Data published by Nigeria’s Budget Office this week highlighted that, despite what should be a favourable high oil price environment, the public finances are actually getting worse. With the... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2022) The chunky increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was due to the re-opening of the services sector which has masked a deterioration in most other parts of the economy. We expect a triple whammy of high... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (July) With headline and core inflation rising more than expected yet again, the case for the ECB to pursue further aggressive tightening of interest rates is unassailable. A 50bp hike in September now looks... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jul.) While the deterioration in the survey data and renewed inversion of the Treasury yield curve imply that the risks are rising, our composite models suggest that the economy is still more likely than... 27th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (June) Bank lending growth accelerated further in June, but lenders expect the demand for loans to slow sharply in the coming months, adding to the reasons to expect the economy to fall into recession... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The further decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in July adds to the evidence that the German economy is on the brink of a recession as high energy prices and worries about energy... 25th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine default, Russia return to fiscal normality? Policymakers in Ukraine devalued the hryvnia this week and asked creditors to suspend debt repayments, which will free up funds for the government, but will add to inflation and increase balance sheet... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Looser fiscal/tighter monetary mix whoever is the Prime Minister If members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had hoped that this week's data releases would provide a clear steer on whether to follow other major central banks and raise interest rates by at... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Although June’s retail sales figures were boosted in some areas by the extra Jubilee bank holiday and dragged down in others, the underlying trend is that the surge in prices is weighing on sales... 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession threat broadens The outlook for the world economy has darkened again and we have reduced our forecasts for all major economies, leaving them further below the consensus of economists. We now anticipate recessions in... 21st July 2022 · 49 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures provided more evidence that the government’s fiscal position is worse than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted back in March. This may limit the ability... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t stop Italy’s spreads from widening It looks like Italy is heading for an early general election. While that won’t necessarily cause an economic and financial crisis, bond spreads are likely to widen regardless of what the ECB announces... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Increased risk of recession The Bank’s aggressive policy tightening will weigh heavily on domestic demand, with consumption growth set to slow sharply while residential investment plunges back to pre-pandemic levels. There is... 20th July 2022 · 20 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tightening credit conditions point to higher yields The Q2 ECB bank lending survey showed a tightening in credit standards for commercial property lending in the first half of the year, with expectations for a further squeeze in H2. With the cost of... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
