UK Economics Rising interest costs will add to the pain for households A rise in Bank Rate to a peak of 3.00% wouldn’t dent real consumer spending anywhere near as much as the drag from surging inflation over the coming quarters. That said, it would only compound the... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics How much does Taiwan matter? Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s creditors pledge debt relief, Kenya’s elections News that Zambia’s official creditors agreed to provide debt relief is certainly encouraging and will unlock IMF funding. But the terms of the deal remain unknown, leaving in doubt that the country’s... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats pivot to fiscal tightening Alongside Pelosi's visit to Taiwan this week, the recently-passed Chips and Science Act is another illustration of the slow-motion decoupling that is developing between the US and China. The modest... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What the BoE told us and what it didn't We have been saying for some time that despite a recession, the Bank of England would be forced to raise interest rates. The Bank of England's signal that it is stepping up the fight against high... 5th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Will frontloading make hard landings less likely? The pace of policy tightening has increased still further, with many central bankers arguing that rate hikes must be “frontloaded” to tackle inflation risks quickly. In the current environment, this... 4th August 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slowing sharply amid high inflation Euro-zone GDP increased by more than we had expected in Q2 as reopening effects boosted the services sector, particularly in the southern countries. But things have already taken a turn for the worse... 4th August 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Stagflation may require rate hikes to 3% and cuts thereafter While raising interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) today, from 1.25% to 1.75%, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) suggested that rates will probably have to rise further to knock on the head the... 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget pain, SA's latest electricity plan Data published by Nigeria’s Budget Office this week highlighted that, despite what should be a favourable high oil price environment, the public finances are actually getting worse. With the... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2022) The chunky increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was due to the re-opening of the services sector which has masked a deterioration in most other parts of the economy. We expect a triple whammy of high... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (July) With headline and core inflation rising more than expected yet again, the case for the ECB to pursue further aggressive tightening of interest rates is unassailable. A 50bp hike in September now looks... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jul.) While the deterioration in the survey data and renewed inversion of the Treasury yield curve imply that the risks are rising, our composite models suggest that the economy is still more likely than... 27th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (June) Bank lending growth accelerated further in June, but lenders expect the demand for loans to slow sharply in the coming months, adding to the reasons to expect the economy to fall into recession... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The further decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in July adds to the evidence that the German economy is on the brink of a recession as high energy prices and worries about energy... 25th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine default, Russia return to fiscal normality? Policymakers in Ukraine devalued the hryvnia this week and asked creditors to suspend debt repayments, which will free up funds for the government, but will add to inflation and increase balance sheet... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
