US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Money growth has stagnated as the Fed’s monetary tightening ramps up, and, while bank loan growth remains robust, we expect it to fade in response to the lagged impact of higher rates and tighter... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial risks mounting as 2023 approaches Global risk appetite has improved in recent weeks, easing some of the strains in EMs. But economic and financial vulnerabilities in EMs are larger going into 2023 than they were at this point last... 7th December 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall rapidly in 2023, as recession bites We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment... 5th December 2022 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE focus will shift from pace of rate hikes to level of rates The news that higher interest rates are starting to influence the economy will at some point soon prompt the Bank of England to start thinking more about the appropriate level of interest rates rather... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Being patient with the pivot Although we agree with the markets that the Bank of England will be patient and won’t pivot from raising interest rates to actually cutting interest rates until 2024, we think that fading inflation... 30th November 2022 · 13 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Oct.) October’s money and credit figures highlight how higher interest rates are starting to influence the economy. Higher interest rates are weakening the demand for credit, especially for mortgages, and... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Past peak inflation – what now for EM policymakers? 1669906800 Inflation appears to have finally peaked for emerging markets – but how quickly will price pressures now ease, and what will that mean for the 2023 outlook?
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: a fork in the road for the economy Voters in Turkey head to the polls in 2023 and if the ruling People’s Alliance and President Erdogan cling on to power, the authorities are likely to double down on their “new economic model”, raising... 21st November 2022 · 40 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher interest rates exposing private sector debt risks Higher interest rates and larger private sector debt burdens mean that debt interest service ratios could rise to levels last seen in the 1990s in many EMs next year. This is unlikely to be a major... 17th November 2022 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Update Weak demand starting to weigh on bank lending Although credit growth in advanced economies remained strong in September, it has largely been used to help economies cope with the effects from rising costs and inflation. But lending criteria is now... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Much weaker than expected credit growth – and an extremely unusual outright fall in lending to households – again underlines the difficulties policymakers are facing stimulating growth while activity... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Higher rates curb demand for loans Higher interest rates have dramatically curbed the demand for home mortgages and auto loans, but there is only limited evidence of banks tightening lending standards, which suggests that they expect... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Problems for Korean corporates piling up Yields on commercial paper in Korea have continued to rise over the past week despite aggressive intervention by the authorities as they struggle to calm the markets. But even if the situation... 4th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Strikes in SA, naira under pressure, Ethiopia ceasefire South Africa is on the cusp of large public sector strikes which will deal another blow to the recovery and raise the risk of fiscal slippage just a week after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
