What will the next recession mean for the economy? Still, despite the possible theoretical benefits of a recession, advocating one is a different matter. Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, said: “If you’ve got to a point where... 19th May 2022 · The Times
Africa Economics Weekly Monetary politics in Nigeria, Ghana’s efforts to curb debt Nigerian President Buhari’s instruction that current government officials planning to run for the country’s highest office should resign will probably leave the central bank without a governor, but... 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Lending was much weaker than expected last month as lockdowns weighed on credit demand. This should nudge the PBOC to announce further easing measures soon. But the central bank continues to signal a... 13th May 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly G-SAP redux? The recent jump in bond yields is reportedly causing consternation among policymakers. The big worry is the impact that higher bond yields would have on the trajectory of India’s public debt. This... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s tightening cycle not derailing credit growth Brazil’s central bank has undertaken the most aggressive tightening cycle of any major economy over the past year, but there has been surprisingly little impact on bank lending. And while we do expect... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Mar.) The decent increase in unsecured borrowing in March suggests that the plunge in consumer confidence and fall in real incomes have not caused consumer spending to collapse. This lends some support to... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Under pressure from weaker euro-zone growth The higher prevalence of renewables in the energy mixes than in most of Europe means the squeeze on incomes from higher gas prices will be less acute in Switzerland and the Nordics, and Norway even... 27th April 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Rates to rise to 3.00% to rein in price expectations Even though a further surge in CPI inflation to a 40-year high of 10% in October will take the economy to the brink of recession, we think the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 0.75% now... 26th April 2022 · 27 mins read
China Economic Outlook No quick fix this time China’s economy rebounded sharply from the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The recovery will be slower and more muted this time, even if the ongoing COVID outbreak is successfully quashed, as less policy... 26th April 2022 · 21 mins read
India Economics Weekly PM Johnson trip, NBFC clean up, WPI surges Underpinning UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s visit to India are talks toward a free-trade agreement, which both countries are aiming to have in place before the end of the year. But the early... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt FX revenues boost, Tunisia avoids default (for now) Egyptian officials appear to be hoping for a revival of the tourism sector as part of their strategy to improve the external position, but we still think that the currency will need to weaken further... 21st April 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central Bankers’ confidence dilemma Inflation is surging in both Australia and New Zealand. That is putting pressure on central banks to hike interest rates to slow the economy and curb inflation. But both the RBNZ and the RBA... 21st April 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recession risks take centre stage The Russian economy will collapse this year and we expect spillovers from the war in Ukraine to cause a recession in many of the smaller countries in the region, particularly Bulgaria and the Baltic... 20th April 2022 · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who holds frontier markets’ foreign debt? China and private bondholders have become increasingly important creditors to governments of many frontier markets, including some of those that are now finding themselves in debt distress. This is... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
