China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows out of China have stabilised in recent months and policymakers have responded by once again easing restrictions on cross-border flows. But outflows are likely to pick up again if the... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan to step down, all eyes now on successor The announcement from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that he will stand down at the end of his current contract in September is likely to put local financial markets under pressure in the near term... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Macri makes inroads into Argentina’s deficit but more work to do Revamped data released by Argentina’s Finance Ministry show that the primary fiscal deficit narrowed significantly in Q1. However, further cuts will be needed to stabilise the public debt ratio and... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will banks’ falling profits undermine lending? Commercial bank profits have started to moderate following the launch of negative interest rates as banks have cut lending rates. However, we are not convinced that further cuts in lending rates will... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rates hiked as inflation jumps, currency pressures mount Today’s 100bp rate hike in Egyptian interest rates was larger than even our own above-consensus forecast and, with inflation likely to rise further in the coming months and the central bank willing to... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Greek debt ever be sustainable? The immediate risks surrounding Greece have receded once again, with the likely completion of its first review today set to trigger payment of its next loan tranche early next week. But our analysis... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wealth effect weighs on Hong Kong consumption Private consumption growth in Hong Kong is at the weakest since 2009, even though the labour market is tight and real wages are growing strongly. The downturn in the city’s housing market and a slump... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) After accelerating since mid-2015, credit growth now appears to be stabilising. It may start to slow before long given that policymakers have in recent months refrained from further monetary easing. 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker shows that, having spiked at the start of this year, capital outflows from the emerging world have fallen to almost zero over the past couple of months. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The modest rise in Mexican inflation in May, to 2.6% y/y from 2.5% y/y in April, in itself is unlikely to have much of a bearing on the central bank’s rate setting meeting later this month given that... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why has stronger credit not lifted growth? Credit growth has been accelerating since the middle of last year and yet growth has remained sluggish, raising questions over the effectiveness of recent policy stimulus. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of Brazil’s credit binge Non-performing loans in Brazil will climb higher as the past decade’s debt boom continues to unwind. However, we think the cost of cleaning up the banking system should be manageable, helped in part... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Goldilocks inflation rare bright spot for policymakers For China’s policymakers worrying about overcapacity, misplaced credit and pressures on the currency, the benign inflation outlook is a rare bright spot. We think consumer price inflation in China was... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Target2 imbalances highlight uneven effects of QE The recent increase in Target2 imbalances does not suggest that the euro-zone is set for another crisis on the scale of 2011/12. However, it does suggest that countries in the core might be... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Further cuts to repo rate unlikely The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its repo rate by 150bp since the start of last year, but we believe that it will now keep rates on hold not just at next week’s policy meeting but for the rest... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Domestic strength can’t keep propping up Emerging Asia Economic growth in Emerging Asia has remained remarkably steady over the past year, even as export demand has stalled. However, policy support and lower oil prices will not continue to prop up... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
