China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit is still expanding at a faster pace than during most of the past couple ofyears. But the impact of earlier monetary easing is now waning and after peaking in May, credit growth is... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will the Norges Bank react to the strength of inflation? Inflation in Norway has been much stronger than the central bank forecast in June, so an interest rate cut in September looks unlikely. But we still expect inflation to fall sharply over the next 12... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rise in short-term interest rates is little to fear The recent surge in short-term market interest rates in the US is linked to the upcoming change in money market fund rules rather than any underlying financial problems 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update No need to panic over maturing FX swaps There still appears to be some confusion over the potential market impact when the RBI’s FX swap facilities mature next month. The RBI has already confirmed that the maturing swaps have been covered... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Growth not strong enough to boost price pressures Weak survey evidence notwithstanding, the economy likely continued to recover in the second quarter, while the labour market has rarely been tighter. However, wage growth remains anaemic and the past... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Few signs of financial stress as credit bubbles deflate Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that Latin America’s credit bubbles are gradually deflating and so far this does not appear to have triggered widespread problems in the region’s banking sectors. Non... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy and Ireland the losers from bank stress test The latest EU bank stress tests confirm that, on the whole, the region’s banks are in a much healthier position than a few years ago. However, there are still significant problems in some countries’... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasuries, credit spreads and the hunt for yield We doubt that spreads on US corporate bonds are set to widen, even though we expect the yields of Treasuries to rise as the Fed tightens policy faster than investors currently anticipate. Past form... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How big a threat are Italy’s banks? Italian banks are in trouble and there are no quick fixes for their problems. We think that policymakers will provide support to lenders this year, but this is unlikely to resolve banks’ underlying... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s tightening cycle has further to go The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today raised its deposit and lending rates by 50bp each in whatwas Indrajit Coomaraswamy’s first monetary policy meeting as governor. With credit growing at... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is a debt problem brewing in Mexico? In contrast to the prevailing view that tight credit conditions have been a constraint on Mexican growth, the debt ratio has actually increased at a reasonably sharp pace over the past five years... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s announcement this week that it will inject more capital into local banks is a positive step, but the amount is still too limited to revive the ailing sector. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Improving data point to September rate hike The Fed is very unlikely to spring any surprises at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday 27th July, but a September rate hike is a distinct possibility. The statement next week... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Credit is still expanding at a fast enough pace to provide support to the economy over the next couple of quarters. However, today's figures provided signs that the boost to credit growth from policy... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Q2 GDP & June Activity While China is almost certainly expanding at a slower rate than its GDP data suggest, rapid state sector investment does appear to have kept growth broadly stable last quarter. Growth is more likely... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2, 2016) Lenders reported a small drop in secured credit availability to households in the second quarter. But the availability of debt for commercial property fell sharply, and the outlook for Q3 looks... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
