Asia Economics Focus Is the Philippines overheating? Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will be soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China caught in a “liquidity trap”? A number of voices have begun loosely using the term “liquidity trap” to argue that stronger credit growth in China has failed to provide a greater boost to output because firms are hoarding cash... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus How to think about monetary policy after Rajan The appointment of Dr Urjit Patel as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) gives a strong indication of policy continuity at the central bank, and strengthens our view that the easing... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank will be on hold for some time The Bank of Canada is unlikely to take any action at the upcoming policy meeting on 7th September. The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% fall the Bank assumed in... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka holds rates, but further tightening still likely The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today left interest rates on hold despite a continued acceleration in credit growth, high inflation and a weak currency. We think another interest rate hike is... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lending growth continues to recover Money and credit growth in the major advanced economies have held up remarkably well this year, despite overall economic growth remaining lacklustre. Indeed, lending to households is now expanding... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) July’s money and credit data show a pick-up in lending growth, despite concerns about banks’ health and the UK’s vote for Brexit. Nevertheless, the data suggest that inflation will remain weak. 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly The dangers of decoupling Economic growth across Emerging Asia accelerated last quarter, as strong domestic demand compensated for weak exports. But while this “decoupling” has enabled Emerging Asia to shrug-off the weakness... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption growth will inevitably slow The stagnation in retail sales in July was not entirely surprising. Following the 4.2% annualised surge in real consumption in the second quarter, it was inevitable that spending growth would ease to... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Two major reasons for cheer Over the past month, two key developments in India have given investors reason to cheer. The first is the passage of the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill, which could bring huge benefits... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Gilt yields set to remain very low for a long while yet The prospect of a further prolonged period of ultra-loose monetary policy suggests that government bond yields are set to remain markedly low for a long time yet. Admittedly, we think Treasury yields... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worried by household debt? The latest data show that household debt is now close to its 2008 peak in dollar terms. However, the gains in income over the past eight years and the decline in interest rates mean that households... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Should we be worried by Germany’s ZEW survey? Most information about Germany implies that the economy has continued to perform well after the UK’s Brexit vote. The main exception is the ZEW survey, which suggests that GDP growth could drop to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s stagnation may soon turn to recession Italy’s economic recovery is slowing. And with big risks to the near-term outlook from the banking sector and the forthcoming referendum on constitutional reform, we suspect that the economy is... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The conventional wisdom is that the Bank of Japan’s large-scale bond purchases will soon dry up the pool of available assets. By contrast, we believe that QQE can continue for several more years. One... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
