Africa Economics Focus African Debt: Troubles contained in a few countries Mozambique’s worsening debt scandal has prompted fears of a string of debt crises across Africa. We believe, however, that the worst debt problems will be centred in Angola. Ghana and Zambia also look... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) The drop in new lending last month was seasonal and does not reflect a shift in broad credit growth, which was stable in October. This stability may not last, however, and we expect credit growth to... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep interest rates unchanged for some time yet The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) surprised nobody with its decision to leave its main policy rate on hold earlier today at 3.0%. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain low and growth... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update PM Modi steps up anti-corruption drive The announcement late yesterday that India’s two largest denominations of banknotes have ceased to be legal tender with immediate effect is likely to weigh on economic activity in the near term, with... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower credit growth will keep a lid on inflation We expect consumer price inflation to have risen slightly last month but it should remain well within policymakers’ comfort zone. Looking ahead, while inflation may edge up in the short term, price... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Household debt mountain to weigh on Asian consumers A surge in household borrowing has provided a key support to economic growth across large parts of Emerging Asia over the past few years. Worst case scenarios of a financial crisis are unlikely to... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the rise in euro-zone bond yields continue? Euro-zone government bond yields have been on the rise recently. This partly reflects a less dovish outlook for ECB policy. As it happens, we don’t think that the ECB will scale back its stimulus in... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate left on hold in Sri Lanka, but further hikes likely Mexico’s economy grew by an impressive 1.0% q/q in Q3, the strongest rate since 2014. However, with growth being driven largely by the services sector and monetary policy set to tighten further, such... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) September’s household borrowing figures highlight that the housing market has started to stabilise and that consumers’ appetite for debt hasn’t taken much of a hit following the referendum. And while... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Debt-to-equity swaps won’t resolve China’s debt woes Earlier this month, the Chinese government sketched out how it intends to address the build up of corporate debt and the threat it poses to financial stability and China’s broader economic outlook. On... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revisiting the NPL problem Another sharp rise in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in Q2 and recent stark warnings from the IMF have refocussed attention on India’s ailing banking sector. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone money and credit data continued the positive trend of recentmonths, consistent with a further steady expansion of the economy. Nevertheless,the data suggest that inflation will... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank leaves policy unchanged, but rate cuts to come The Norges Bank left its key policy rate on hold today and reiterated that no change was likely in the near future. But we think that more monetary loosening will be needed in 2017. 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World still awash with liquidity even as Fed prepares to hike Broad money and credit have been growing at a steady pace, against the backdrop of exceptionally loose global monetary conditions. In advanced economies, growth in lending to the private sector has... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures remain elevated Much of the focus both before and after the RBI’s decision to cut the repo rate by 25bp (to 6.25%) in early October has been on the sharp fall in headline inflation over the past couple of months. But... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi banks should continue to weather economic headwinds Banks in Saudi Arabia have coped well so far with the fallout from lower oil prices and we think the sector is in a strong position to confront the ongoing economic headwinds over the coming years. 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
