Asia Economics Weekly Where do the risks lie? Financial markets across Emerging Asia have rebounded in recent months as investors have become more confident over the short-term economic outlook for the region. However, as we make clear in our... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Will commercial banks now pass on policy rate cuts? Having now cut its repo rate by 150bp since January 2015, the RBI yesterday re-emphasised the need for commercial banks to boost lending by passing on rate reductions to borrowers. In truth, high... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for household spending? Consumption growth has slowed in every major advanced economy over the past six months or so, but prospects for the rest of the year are mixed. Spending should pick up again in the US, where the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece/IMF spat underlines fragility of bailout The public spat between Greece and the IMF underlines the fragility of the country’s latest bailout deal and demonstrates that its long-term future inside the currency union is still far from assured... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is a debt crisis in Australia really just around the corner? We can’t rule it out completely, but recent suggestions that Australia is the second most likely country in the world to suffer a debt crisis and recession in the next one to three years seem... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The pronounced drop in the headline index of today’s Tankan survey underlines that the recent strengthening of the yen has damaged business confidence and suggests that the Bank of Japan will announce... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.) February’s household borrowing figures will have done nothing to ease concerns regarding rapid unsecured credit growth and the sustainability of the consumer recovery. But we do not yet consider the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money and credit aggregates still expanding steadily Broad money and credit have continued to grow at a steady pace since the start of the year while government and corporate bond yields have dropped back. The prospect of further easing from the ECB and... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Have homebuilders shut out first-time buyers? In recent years, homebuilders have focussed on constructing more expensive properties. However, that primarily reflects builders responding to underlying demand conditions. So, for the most part, we... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC bows to government pressure The Turkish central bank’s surprise decision to reduce its overnight lending rate by 25bp to 10.5% today was dressed up as a move to simplify the monetary setup, but it appears to be a result of... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation: assessing the impact on balance sheets The recent devaluation of the Egyptian pound will create winners and losers within the country through its impact on balance sheets. Households and commercial banks stand to gain from a rise in the... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Resilience of bank profits is bad news for BoJ The conventional wisdom is that the collapse in bond yields since the launch of QQE is undermining bank profits. In reality, though they reached a fresh high last year. Unfortunately this is bad news... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: time to call in the IMF? Given that Brazil’s growing debt burden is denominated overwhelmingly in local currency there is little need for the foreign currency financing that an IMF bailout would provide. Instead, the main... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slowdown in capital outflows from Russia? Capital outflows from Russia have slowed markedly in recent quarters and the nature of these outflows has changed too – they are now driven by Russian companies repaying their external debts, rather... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What options does Sweden’s Riksbank have left? The growing unease over the potential impact of negative interest rates suggests that Sweden’s Riksbank will think twice about cutting the repo rate further below zero. It can draw on other policy... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB about to launch the chopper? While the distribution of helicopter money in the euro-zone is not a likely near-term measure, the lesson of recent years is that seemingly unimaginable policies can become reality. And it may suit... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
