Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls Soaring interest rates and weak real income growth will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. With New Zealand’s central bank determined to... 12th December 2022 · 26 mins read
US Economics Update Does the tripledemic pose a new economic threat? The worsening tripledemic of Covid, influenza and RSV is unlikely to have a significant impact on economic growth, but it could weigh on employment and hours worked over the next few months. 11th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growth slowdown will dampen price pressures Australia’s economy continued to expand at a robust pace last quarter and there are mounting signs that the tight labour market is boosting wage growth. That suggests that the RBA isn’t done... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Firmer evidence of easing price pressures Data over the past month have brought the clearest signs yet that inflation is starting to ease. Our estimate of world CPI inflation fell for the first time in 15 months in October, from 7.9% to 7.7%... 7th December 2022 · 12 mins read
US Economics Update A tale of two labour markets The better-than-expected 263,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment suggests it’s still the best of times in the labour market but, digging below the surface, there are worrying signs that it could... 6th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Oct. 22) Labour cash earnings increased by a slower 1.8% y/y in October due mostly to a much smaller gain in volatile bonus payments. However, real wage losses have extended for a seventh consecutive month and... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall rapidly in 2023, as recession bites We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment... 5th December 2022 · 24 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Global downturn will drag Japan into recession The global downturn will pull Japan into recession next year. And with government caps on utility bills pushing inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target by mid-2023, the Bank will remain the... 5th December 2022 · 23 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The slowdown in hiring in November did not prevent a decline in the unemployment rate, as the labour force contracted. The Bank of Canada will be more encouraged by the fall in the 3-month annualised... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The resilience of the labour market and the resurgence in wage pressures don’t change our view that core price inflation is going to fall more rapidly than the Fed believes, and we still expect... 2nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Oct.) Total employment grew across the 30 metros, but at a slower pace as labour market conditions continued to ease. With our proprietary indicators pointing to a 90% probability of an imminent recession... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (October) The record-low euro-zone unemployment rate of 6.5% in October is likely to be as good as it gets for the region’s labour market. But the rise in unemployment from here will probably be small. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions still easing gradually The further falls in job openings and voluntary quits in October indicate that labour market conditions are continuing to ease gradually, which should keep downward pressure on wage growth. 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
