Canada Chart Pack Construction the next shoe to drop The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000... 24th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Multi-employer pay deals add upside risks to inflation The proposed multi-employer wage agreements risk further fuelling inflation by disruptive industrial action. And while employers could circumvent them by striking traditional enterprise agreements... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth easing; wage growth slowing We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by a more modest 175,000 in November, although that should be sufficient to leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic resilience won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of consumer spending is keeping hopes of a soft landing alive. Although GDP growth looks to have slowed in the fourth quarter, and most leading indicators of recession are flashing red... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of recent German wage agreements Wage growth in Germany will be far lower next year than some headlines about recent wage deals suggest, but it will still rise above levels compatible with core inflation of 2%. 18th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth still not a major driver of price pressures Even though wage growth surpassed 3% for the first time since 2012 last quarter, and unemployment is back at a record low, the tight labour market has not been a major driver of the recent surge in... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct. 2022) Australia’s labour market held up well in October, consistent with our expectations for a near-term acceleration in wage growth and a further 100bps of rate hikes by the RBA. But we think employment... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3) Wage growth climbed above 3% in Q3 for the first time since 2013 and we expect it to climb further to 3.5% by the middle of next year. 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) Euro-zone GDP growth slowed to just 0.2% q/q in Q3 and with all of the timelier surveys pointing downwards, the economy looks set to fall into recession in Q4. Nevertheless, surveys of firms’ hiring... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep./Oct.) September’s labour market figures reveal further signs that the labour market is becoming less tight. That may alleviate some of the pressure on the Bank of England to repeat November’s 75 basis point... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Upside surprises to Q3 GDP not a sign of things to come Many of the Q3 GDP releases of early-reporting economies have beaten consensus expectations in the past few weeks, especially in Europe. Not only did energy-crisis-laden Germany grow in Q3, rather... 11th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank wants to see rise in unemployment Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said this week that the unemployment rate will need to rise to help restore price stability, but he also played down the significance of the strong gains in... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Fiscal policy tightening just as the recession begins While the risk premium that pushed gilt yields up and the pound down after the mini-budget has mostly been reversed under the stewardship of Sunak and Hunt, the fear that the markets will baulk at any... 10th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to keep hiking as stagflation intensifies The latest activity indicators show that the economy contracted in October, and the forward-looking measures of new orders and expectations suggest that the downturn will get worse. We have pencilled... 8th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Japan Economics Update Surge in regular pay more than a reopening distortion A strong rebound in working hours in the accommodation and food services sector is one reason why regular pay is growing at the fastest pace in a generation. However, there’s been a broad-based upward... 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
