Global Economics Chart Pack Upside surprises to Q3 GDP not a sign of things to come Many of the Q3 GDP releases of early-reporting economies have beaten consensus expectations in the past few weeks, especially in Europe. Not only did energy-crisis-laden Germany grow in Q3, rather... 11th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank wants to see rise in unemployment Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said this week that the unemployment rate will need to rise to help restore price stability, but he also played down the significance of the strong gains in... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Fiscal policy tightening just as the recession begins While the risk premium that pushed gilt yields up and the pound down after the mini-budget has mostly been reversed under the stewardship of Sunak and Hunt, the fear that the markets will baulk at any... 10th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to keep hiking as stagflation intensifies The latest activity indicators show that the economy contracted in October, and the forward-looking measures of new orders and expectations suggest that the downturn will get worse. We have pencilled... 8th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Japan Economics Update Surge in regular pay more than a reopening distortion A strong rebound in working hours in the accommodation and food services sector is one reason why regular pay is growing at the fastest pace in a generation. However, there’s been a broad-based upward... 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Sep. 22) The 2.1% rise in labour cash earnings in September was the fastest since 1997 but it was mostly driven by volatile bonus payments and won’t be sustained. However, regular earnings growth remained... 8th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Monetary policy will be loosened next year With inflation surprising to the upside in Q3, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to revise up its near-term forecasts for inflation in its latest Statement on Monetary Policy. What’s more, the... 7th November 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed labour market signals may mean yields stay high for a while While we still think a sustained fall in Treasury yields is on the cards, the latest US employment data suggest it may still be a while off yet. 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The October employment report had something for everyone, with continued strong gains on the payroll survey while the household measure showed a sharp fall in employment and a rise in unemployment... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The 108,300 surge in employment in October makes a mockery of claims that the economy is on the cusp of recession and, with wage growth accelerating sharply despite favourable base effects, that means... 4th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strength in business investment won’t be sustained We’re revising up our estimate of Q3 business investment as capital goods shipments surged and firms plan to spend the most on research and development in years. However, with a global manufacturing... 4th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hawkish RBA will continue to tighten well into 2023 The RBA didn’t respond to the upside surprise in Q3 inflation with a renewed 50bp hike this week as some had anticipated. But by revising up its inflation forecasts and sounding increasingly concerned... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
