UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jun.) Employment growth was strong in the three months before the referendum. Even so, there are good reasons why rental value growth is likely to slow further in the second half of the year. 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun./Jul.) Today’s data showed that the labour market was strong prior to the referendum and the leave vote doesn’t appear to have caused any immediate damage. But the solid figures shouldn’t stop the MPC from... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2) The delayed release of the second quarter labour market figures showed a surprise surge in employment growth. The unemployment rate also fell slightly, but we expect it to edge down only slowly this... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul. 16) Housing starts managed to rise modestly for the second month in a row in July, but their overall performance remains lacklustre. But with so few existing homes for sale and the labour market creating... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses continue to favour hiring over capex The latest data suggest that while firms are reluctant to increase capital expenditure, they are nonetheless continuing to expand their workforces. With the unemployment rate below 5%, however, the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have consumers shrugged off Brexit? Last week’s figures suggested that households haven’t been ruffled much by the leave vote. Admittedly, we are wary about reading too much into these relatively upbeat figures. Temporary factors such... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey points to tightening labour market The latest JOLT survey suggests that labour market conditions continue to tighten, which should generate an acceleration in wage growth later this year. 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will wage growth ever pick up? Unemployment has continued to fall steadily in most advanced economies, but there is still some sparecapacity left. Moreover, the link between unemployment and wage growth is weaker than in the past... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity slump even worse than previously feared The second-quarter productivity figures, which incorporate the recent downward revisions to historical GDP, reveal that the stagnation in productivity growth was even worse than we previously believed... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Growth not strong enough to boost price pressures Weak survey evidence notwithstanding, the economy likely continued to recover in the second quarter, while the labour market has rarely been tighter. However, wage growth remains anaemic and the past... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jul.) The improvement in both current conditions and the outlook in today’s Economy Watchers Survey was the strongest since spring 2014. That said, the survey’s link with actual economic activity is often... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & Int. Trade (Jun.) The better than expected 255,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July will renew speculation that the Fed might hike interest rates as soon as this September, but we still think Fed officials will... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s labour market is hiding slack Russia’s unemployment rate has hardly budged despite the deep economic downturn over the past 18 months. There does, however, appear to be “hidden” slack in the labour market, one implication of which... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) Wage growth rebounded in June, and the headline continues to mask solid gains in hourly earnings. Nonetheless, wages are not growing fast enough to create noticeable price pressures. 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy shrugs off Brexit vote The initial evidence suggests that the UK’s vote to leave the EU has caused its economy to slow sharply. That has already prompted the Bank of England to ease policy, and we suspect it will cut rates... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Employment (Q2) The slimmed-down labour market release suggests that employment growth weakened a little in the second quarter. The RBNZ will be more worried, however, to see that there is still no sign of... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
