Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The mixed and messy labour market While the Reserve Bank of Australia would do well to ignore the recent falls in employment, it will be getting more concerned that the rising share of employees working part-time will keep wage growth... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September’s Swedish Labour Force Survey confirmed that the previous month’s poorresults were a one-off and highlights the tightness of the labour market. With firms’hiring intentions picking up in... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Sep.) The RBA may not be too worried by the further decline in employment in September since the data are subject to a couple of distortions and since the unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.7%. But the... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Aug.) The pace of job creation slowed a little in August, but there was little in the data to suggest that a slump in occupier demand or in rental value growth is imminent. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug./Sep.) August’s labour market data showed that the EU referendum still hasn’t provided much of a hit to the jobs recovery. But surveys suggest employment growth will slow further in the coming months which... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in French unemployment is a worrying sign The recent increase in French unemployment seems unlikely to be reversed rapidly. And while a new government may be elected next year promising job-boosting reforms, its success will be limited by... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity to recover next year The housing market is starting to recover from the initial shock of the Brexit vote. But with prices already high, we don’t expect a return to business as usual. Rather, we think house price growth... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising labour participation a dilemma for the Fed The marked slowdown in the rate at which the remaining slack in the labour market is being absorbed poses a big dilemma for the Fed. The standard unemployment rate has now been broadly unchanged at 5... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Recent job gains appear to be very low quality The massive 67,200 increase in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) measure of employment in September would seem to suggest that labour market conditions are improving. But under the surface there is a... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How far will the pound’s fall lift inflation? The further fall in sterling over the past week or so will add to the inflationary pressures already set to build over the next few years. The drop in the exchange rate will have both direct and... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank will remain on the sidelines this year The Bank of Canada is unlikely to announce any major changes to either its economic projections or policy stance next Wednesday. The apparent rebound in third-quarter GDP and the surge in employment... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Weathering the Brexit storm The evidence so far has supported our view that the immediate economic impact of the vote to leave the EU would not be as severe as most had expected. And although there are many challenges ahead –... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys point to slightly weaker labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys add to the recent evidence that labour market conditions have weakened a little over the past year, and that slack is no longer diminishing at such a rapid pace. 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Rising political risks threaten growth outlook The European economy appears to have weathered the initial impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union reasonably well. However, the vote could yet have important indirect effects by fuelling... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Sep.) Allowing for seasonal factors, the Economy Watchers Survey continued to improve in September. However, “current conditions” still point to falling industrial output. 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in services inflation highlights failure of QQE Recent data suggest that the economic recovery may be a touch stronger than we had been expecting. However, there are no signs that the tight labour market is fuelling price pressures. While the Bank... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
