UK Economics Weekly Jobs market should weather economic slowdown well The extent of any post-referendum slowdown in consumer spending will hinge crucially on developments in the labour market. While last week’s labour market figures showed little sign of a Brexit impact... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending growth slowdown not too sharp Consumer spending growth should slow in the coming few quarters as a result of a number of headwinds. Indeed, we expect the Brexit vote to cause some firms to put a halt on hiring decisions, slowing... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Aug.) After adjusting the data to strip out the temporary boost from the Census, we estimate that employment fell by around 14,000 in August. While we aren’t too concerned about the outlook for employment... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market slack no longer shrinking Since the start of this year the rate of improvement in labour market conditions has slowed to a crawl. While a welcome rebound in the participation rate helps to explain why the unemployment rate has... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jul.) The first release to include post-referendum jobs data suggests that jobs growth is proving resilient. Nevertheless, job creation is likely to slow in the months ahead, but occupier demand is unlikely... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul./Aug.) Given the lags involved, it’s not particularly surprising that the latest data showed that labour market activity has yet to suffer from the apparent post-referendum slowdown in economic growth. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) & Euro-zone Employment (Q2) The fact that ZEW investor sentiment was unchanged in September despite the easing of fears about the effects of Brexit adds to signs that underlying growth in the German economy is set to slow. 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Looser ECB policy will still pull the euro down The ECB’s decision last week not to announce an extension to its asset purchase programme led us to revise our year-end forecast for the euro exchange rate. But we still think that looser monetary... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.16) The 26,000 rebound in employment in August looks good at first glance but, following the 31,200 decline in July, that still means employment is down slightly over the past three months as a whole. The... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Did the MPC jump the gun in August? The resilience of the recent data has prompted some commentators to question whether the MPC was wrong to cut Bank Rate to 0.25% and announce new gilt purchases of £60bn and corporate bond purchases... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The secret fiscal stimulus An unusual surge in public demand drove the decent rise in GDP in Australia in the second quarter. However, with this support from the public sector unlikely to be sustained and few signs that other... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly ASEAN still struggling for purpose The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has just concluded its annual meeting in Laos, has little chance of becoming the kind of single market and production base which could one... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey reveals tightening labour market The rise in the job openings rate to a record high of 3.9% in July, from 3.8%, suggests that, despite the slowdown in payroll gains in August, labour market conditions continue to tighten, which... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Labour market tightest since mid-1990s Japan’s labour market has been tight for a while but the unemployment rate has continued to fall and now stands at a level last seen in the mid-1990s. The latest data show a long-awaited pick-up in... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Growth slows but full-blown recession should be avoided At first glance, the economy appears to have brushed off the EU referendum. The economy was performing well prior to the vote, with GDP and employment growth both accelerating in Q2. Meanwhile... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) Wage growth held up better than expected in July, helped by faster growth in bonus payments. But with regular earnings still expanding at a sluggish pace, wage growth is set to moderate over the... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
