Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Will jobs growth continue to soar in 2018? While the upbeat nature of business employment surveys suggests jobs growth should be fairly decent this year, the exceptionally strong pace of job creation in 2017 seems unlikely to be repeated. 14th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy on track for solid Q4 The recent spate of positive economic news has prompted some to raise their forecasts for Q4 quarterly growth to as much as 0.6%, double the average seen in 2017 so far. We have our doubts over... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The Economy Watchers Survey remained strong in December despite a small decline. The survey suggests that consumer spending and employment will continue growing at rates comparable to those seen over... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will minimum wage hikes hurt Korea’s economy? The South Korean government hopes that steep hikes to the minimum wage will provide a boost to private consumption and help to reduce inequality, but there is a risk that the policy may do more harm... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy shrugging off euro’s rise At the start of January, the euro reached a three-year high against the US dollar and a three-and-a-half year high in trade-weighted terms. While the euro’s climb over the past year or so may seem... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys point to a pick-up in wage pressures in 2018 Small firms remain optimistic about the outlook, but tighter labour market conditions are becoming an increasing constraint on expansion. That points to a pick-up in wage pressures and continued... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Nov.) The euro-zone unemployment rate fell for the fourth consecutive month in November, highlighting the continued recovery in the labour market. But this will prompt only a modest pick-up in wage growth. 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) Regular earnings probably rose at the fastest pace in two decades last year. Yet the pace of improvement remains woefully slow so the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target remains out of reach. 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi bonuses to lift growth but raise fears over reform The announcement in Saudi Arabia over the weekend that the government will pay bonuses to civil servants and military personnel means that fiscal policy will be slightly looser this year than had been... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How much longer can the labour force grow? Perhaps the most remarkable achievement of Abenomics has been the continued increase in employment despite the contraction in the working age population. It is possible that Japan will be able to... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Minimum wage hikes are a storm in a teacup Minimum wage hikes this year won’t have significant consequences for the broader economy or inflation, nor do they change the interest rate outlook one way or the other. As we have warned before, the... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) & Trade (Nov.) The solid 78,600 increase in employment in December and the drop in the unemployment rate to 5.7%, from 5.9%, suggest that the domestic economy is coping well with recent increases in interest rates... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) & Internat’l Trade (Nov.) The slightly disappointing 148,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December will not prevent the Fed from continuing to normalise interest rates, with the next hike probably coming in March. 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s strength not yet a major concern The main news for the euro-zone economy at the year’s outset has been the further appreciation of the euro. While this might seem like a major headwind to the economy’s upturn, we remain optimistic... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy gathered a little momentum in Q4 The latest survey evidence suggests that the economy ended 2017 on a reasonable footing. Indeed, despite a fall-back in both the manufacturing and construction PMI surveys in December, the all-sector... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Solid job gains will drive unemployment rate lower Our econometric model points to a 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, which would be well above the average monthly gain of 174,000 over the first 11 months of last year. Manufacturing... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
