India Chart Pack Attention turns to state elections Upcoming state elections in India are likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be crucial in... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian currencies set to rise Prospects for the Nordic and Swiss economies’ are fairly good, with Sweden and Iceland likely to be the best performers. But the outlook for inflation, and therefore monetary policy, varies... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec.) While the labour market improved in December from the weakness of the third quarter, it remained worryingly fragile. This is one reason to expect 2017 to be another disappointing year for the overall... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Nov.) Despite marking a second consecutive contraction in job creation, today’s figures were not all bad for property. With part-time and self-employed jobs bearing the brunt of the falls, and forward... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is euro-zone wage growth set to take off? Wage growth was subdued in 2016, but the recent decline in the euro-zone unemployment rate to an 87-month low, taken in isolation, points to a strong pick-up from here. On the face of it, that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Steady growth ahead Most countries in Emerging Asia should continue to grow at a decent pace over the next couple of years as loose monetary policy helps support demand. The key exception is China, where growth looks set... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation close to bottoming out Inflation fell to fresh lows at the end of 2016, with the Bank of Japan’s favourite measure of underlying inflation turning negative in the Tokyo region on our estimates. What’s more, there are few... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Nov.) November’s euro-zone unemployment data reaffirm our view that the labour market is experiencing only a gradual recovery. Indeed, the unemployment rate is still high, while survey indicators point to... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy entering 2017 with some momentum The world economy is entering 2017 with stronger growth and rising inflation, but prospects for the rest of the year are more mixed. Activity has picked up in unison across the major economies in... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack A strong end to 2016 Revisions from the ONS mean that quarterly GDP growth in Q3 is now estimated to have been 0.6% – the same as in Q2. What’s more, business surveys suggest that this pace was maintained in Q4... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) & Int. Trade (Nov.) The massive 54,000 increase in employment in December continued the barely believable run of job gains over the past few months. The economy added 108,000 jobs in the fourth quarter, the most since... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) & Int. Trade (Nov.) The more modest 156,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December suggests that labour market conditions weakened just a fraction in the closing stages of last year. Nevertheless, that is still a... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) Headline wage growth remained close to zero in November and part-time wages would have to rise at a much stronger pace to generate faster gains in consumer prices. 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market close to full employment We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth picked up to 200,000 in December. And although the unemployment rate may have edged back up to 4.7%, this would still leave it below Fed officials’... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
