US Housing Market Outlook House prices set to rise by 6% in 2016 There has been no let-up in the very tight market conditions which have characterised the housing market in recent months. With housing demand rising steadily on the back of low mortgage interest... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak start to spring wage negotiations The early results of the Shunto spring wage negotiations have been disappointing to policymakers hoping to see faster wage gains. The major carmakers and electronics firms have agreed smaller base pay... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Election and Census will further distort labour market data There is not enough evidence to conclude that the recent sharp slowdown in employment growth in Australia is due to fears over the health of the global economy rather than statistical noise. This year... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack “Basically stable” renminbi slides lower Three months after the People’s Bank hinted that it would in future manage the renminbi relative to a currency basket rather than the dollar the jury is still out on what this means in practice... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The recent stagnation in employment is probably just payback from the unjustified strength late last year rather than a sign that fears over the global economy have prompted businesses to postpone... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed dovish today, but should turn more hawkish later The Fed opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50% today, while also lowering its projections for the pace of future rate hikes. Nevertheless, as inflation continues to rise and... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jan./Feb.) With the Chancellor setting the backdrop to this afternoon’s Budget as one where the global “storm clouds” are gathering, today’s labour market figures offer a ray of sunshine. However, wage growth is... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jan) With the unemployment rate already low, it is perhaps unsurprising that the pace of job creation slowed in January. However, the picture is still supportive for occupier demand as high job vacancies... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Feeling the squeeze 2016 is shaping up to be a better year for investors in Latin America than 2015. With global commodity prices now at a bottom and set to edge up this year, we expect most equity markets in the region... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Feb.) The February retail sales report was disappointing (taking account also of downward revisions to January data) and means that the risks to our forecast for first quarter-GDP growth of 2.5% annualised... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is there a bubble in commercial property? It is questionable whether the surge in commercial property prices can be sustained. The rise in multi-family apartment prices, which explains a large part of the overall increase in commercial... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe set to shine while Russia continues to struggle We expect the economies of Central Europe (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) to perform well over 2016-17. Consumer spending looks set to stay strong, while export sectors will... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Gulf finance budget deficits this year? Low oil prices mean that budget deficits will persist for some time in the GCC and we think these countries will shift away from a reliance on savings towards issuing debt to plug the gap this year... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s political crisis takes dramatic turn Brazil’s financial markets rallied after news broke last week that former President Lula had been detained (and later released) in relation to the ongoing corruption probe at Petrobras. But this... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deficit paranoia is mind-bogglingly stupid The hysterical response to the news that the Federal budget deficit might increase to as much as $30bn next year left us shaking our heads in dismay. Canadian economists are still stuck in the Paul... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) With employment rising at a rapid pace and labour market slack still shrinking, we think the Fed will resume raising interest rates in June. A marked pick-up in wage growth is still notably absent... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
