Global Economics Update Is a pick-up in wage growth on the horizon? Employment growth in advanced economies has so far remained fairly resilient in the face of weaker global growth and we think labour markets will continue to tighten gradually in the coming months... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys reveal no labour market deterioration The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that, contrary to the already reported slowdown in the pace of monthly payroll gains in April, labour market slack is still shrinking. That should eventually... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rising unemployment adds to political risk The rise of unemployment to a 12-year high is another grim milestone for South Africa. And with municipal elections coming up in August, today’s data may embolden populist figures hoping to capitalise... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) Wage growth rose sharply in March, but only because of strong bonus payments. Growth in base pay weakened, and the ongoing spring wage negotiations suggest that the tight labour market is not about to... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The modest decline of 2,100 in employment in suggests that the economy is still struggling to cope with lower oil prices. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1%. We still believe that the worst... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Incoming data point to second-quarter pick-up The incoming data were fairly positive last week. The rebound in the non-manufacturing surveys more than made up for the continuing softness in the manufacturing surveys, while the sharp recovery in... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The more modest 160,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April will have caught a few people out, after all the consensus forecast was as high as 200,000, but the out-turn was broadly in line with our own... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1) The sharper-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate in the first quarter reversed half of the large decline at the end of last year and suggests that the previous improvement was more a mirage... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Pre-election Budget postpones fiscal pain While the Budget has been badged as focusing on “jobs and growth”, Treasurer Scott Morrison was clearly thinking about his own job and the probable Federal election on 2nd July when he crafted it... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Adjustment to low oil prices not going to plan Although the economy likely grew strongly in the first quarter, beneath the surface we aren’t convinced that the economy is still struggling to adjust to lower energy prices, despite the weaker... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Anti-immigration stance would hurt Austria The first round result of Austria’s presidential election is testament to how polarising the issue of immigration has become in European politics. However, a crackdown on immigration could deny... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q1) & Flash CPI (Apr.) The euro-zone’s new earlier (“preliminary flash”) estimate of GDP confirmed the message from country data that the economy regained some pace in Q1 after the slowdown in H2 last year. But growth is... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries continue adjustment to cheap oil Saudi Arabia’s ambitious plans to overhaul its economy have grabbed the headlines in recent days, but the past month has seen a number of other Gulf countries announce further measures to deal with... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Conditions improve, but activity remains depressed The latest activity data from across Latin America have been encouraging, but the bigger picture is that the region’s economy is still struggling. Industrial and retail output in Brazil fell at a... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Modest slowdown in pace of payroll gains not worrisome Our econometric model points to a more modest 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 5.0%. Otherwise, we’ve pencilled in a 0.3% m/m gain in... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Dollars go from helping to hindering The recent strength of both the Australian and New Zealand dollars means that interest rates will have to fall further than widely expected to solve the twin problems of too slow economic growth and... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
