US Economics Weekly Yellen will reiterate “wait and see” message In her semi-annual testimony to Congress this week (to the House on Wednesday and the Senate on Thursday), Fed Chair Janet Yellen is unlikely to say that a March rate hike is completely off the table... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The weaker than expected 5,700 decline in employment in January, was a poor start to the year and provides more evidence that the economy is struggling to cope with the collapse in oil prices. The... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) Although the 151,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January was below the consensus forecast of a 190,000 gain, the rest of the employment report was very encouraging, with the unemployment rate... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity stagnation is biggest medium-term threat Putting aside the short-term threats from slower global economic growth, the stronger dollar and tightening financial conditions, the biggest medium-term threat to the living standards of Americans is... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy more resilient than the markets While the latest data have raised fresh questions about the strength of the US economy, we think activity will recover because income growth remains strong while the drags from dollar appreciation and... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Market turmoil not a major economic threat…yet The sharp falls in equity prices since the turn of the year are unlikely to prompt households or businesses to rein in their spending. In fact, when set against some measures of domestic activity, it... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Policymakers will struggle to boost economy The sharp drop in oil prices and the Canadian dollar have led to a rapid deterioration in Canada’s economic outlook, overwhelming the ability of policymakers to stabilise the economy with conventional... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much will workers gain from the recovery? While we are positive about the prospects for productivity growth, we don’t think workers will fully benefit from this and the gains will only partially feed through to higher wage growth. This means... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A weak start to the year Hard data for the fourth quarter of last year, including GDP estimates for some countries and industrial production and retail sales figures for the region as a whole, suggest that euro-zone GDP... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4) The astonishing plunge in the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of last year, to a six-year low of 5.3% from 6.0% in the third quarter, decreases the chances that the RBNZ will reduce interest... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s fall in euro-zone unemployment was encouraging, but the rate remains too high to boost wage growth. And the still deeply negative rate of producer price inflation points to more... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Dec.) Today’s activity data were disappointing and suggest that Japan’s economy barely grew last quarter. While activity should recover in Q1, the moderation in underlying inflation suggests that the Bank... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Base effects will temporarily depress wage growth Our econometric model points to a solid 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which should lower the unemployment rate to 4.9%, leaving it in line with the Fed’s median estimate of the long... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Job creation and supply shortages support rents The recovery in rental value growth has continued to plateau. This, however, does not imply that rents are due to correct as the positive economic outlook and supply shortages should underpin rental... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Low underlying inflation to prompt more rate cuts We continue to believe that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand won’t accelerate at all this year from last year’s disappointing rates of around 2.3%. A further weakening in the outlook for... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Oil price fall dents hopes for stabilisation in Russia The latest fall in oil prices and in the ruble since the start of the year has dealt a blow to hopes that Russia’s economy would stabilise in the near future. Fiscal policy is likely to be tightened... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
