Japan Economics Update Pick up in part-time earnings not enough Part-time earnings have picked up speed in recent months. But they are still rising at a slower rate than a few years ago and would have to pick up much further in order for the Bank of Japan to meet... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) The marked slowdown in the annual growth rate of labour cash earnings in November was mostly due to a plunge in volatile bonus payments, whereas regular pay expanded rather solidly. However, much... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Renewed worries about China look overdone Concerns about China’s economic prospects have rattled investors in the past few days. However, we think China’s economy will pick up in the coming months. Overall, the latest economic data do not... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemp. & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s EC Business and Consumer Survey added to evidence that euro-zone GDP growth accelerated in Q4, but the consumer recovery seems to be losing pace. 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery loses its vigour in 2015 The National Accounts released at the end of last year suggested that the economic recovery has less momentum than previously thought and still looks very unbalanced. Real GDP in 2015 is now on course... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Can Thailand move out of the slow lane? Thailand’s economy has had a disappointing decade, partly reflecting the economic costs of prolonged political conflict. The military-backed government’s recent efforts to address Thailand’s... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Jump in wage growth not all due to base effects Our econometric model indicates a 210,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in December, which should be enough to nudge the unemployment rate down to 4.9%. Base effects mean that even a modest 0.2%... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Faster German wage growth is nothing to fear The recent pick-up in German wage growth is encouraging and we think that fears of a sharp rise in inflation and loss of competitiveness are unwarranted. Our one misgiving is that the ECB might... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda fails to launch in 2015 On the face of it, 2015 has been a decent year for the Indian economy. Admittedly, activity indicators are pointing to a slow and bumpy recovery, but conditions have undoubtedly improved following... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack ASEAN Economic Community is no game changer The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) formally takes effect on 31st December and aims to transform ASEAN into a single market and production base, which its supporters hope will one day enable it to... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Rebound won’t be sustained Australia and New Zealand both staged impressive rebounds in the third quarter, with GDP rising by 0.9% q/q in each economy on the back of a large boost from net exports. However, neither economy will... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation set to rebound Inflation is currently being held down by the impact of falling commodity prices and the stronger dollar but, as those deflationary forces fade next year, we expect rising domestic price pressures to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Households unprepared for what comes next We fear that households are utterly unprepared for the normalisation of market interest rates that began with the US Fed’s historic lift-off last week. Canada’s economy has long been overly reliant on... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What to expect in 2016 If 2015 was the year when interest rates didn’t rise as rapidly as most originally expected, then 2016 is likely to be the opposite, with a bigger than expected rebound in inflation forcing the Fed to... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth supports to fade in 2016 The stronger-than-expected performance of the euro-zone economy in 2015 and the additional policy support recently provided by the ECB might appear to provide the conditions for a further improvement... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 2016: Surviving rate rises and an EU referendum After a slight wobble in the autumn, the UK economy seems to be ending 2015 on a more positive note. Growth this year is on course to have been about 2.4%. While weaker than 2014’s 2.9% growth rate... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
