Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons for 2016 from 2015 Our decent forecasting performance in 2015 means we are not too worried by some of our forecasts for 2016 being very different to the consensus. Our big success this year was accurately forecasting... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone employment recovery masks national divergence Employment in the euro-zone is expanding at a healthy pace and survey data point to a positive outlook. But this hides a very mixed story amongst different countries, and the overall picture is... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Revival won't last long The recent resurgence in activity in both Australia and New Zealand is not the start of a sustained period of strong GDP growth. While the near-term outlook has improved, GDP growth in both economies... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Oct./Nov.) The latest labour market data showed a slowdown in wage growth, adding to evidence that there is no need for the MPC to follow the Fed in raising rates just yet. 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) While the headline manufacturing PMI was little changed in December, the moderation in the output component suggests that the recovery has lost some momentum. 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa battered by self-induced crisis A recent series of unexpected cabinet reshuffles – in which South Africa had three finance ministers in four days – has dented the political and economic credibility of President Jacob Zuma. The rand... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak German exports dent hopes for 2016 Contrary to hopes that a weaker euro and accommodative monetary policy would be particularly beneficial to Germany’s supposedly super-competitive export sector, the latest data have brought signs that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) November’s labour market data are either a major mirage or a minor miracle. We think that the truth lies somewhere in between, with conditions improving but not quite as much as the figures suggest. 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Are wages rising at a record pace? Despite suggestions that wages are now increasing at a record rate, wages have in fact barely increased at all this year. Looking ahead, we suspect that the upcoming spring wage negotiations will... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Declining EU investment funds in 2016 not a disaster for CEE One factor that has supported growth in Central and Eastern Europe this year is a rise in EU structural funding, but this looks set to ease in 2016. As we explain in this Watch, while this will reduce... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Despite the modest fall back in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in December, from 101.7 in November to 100.8, we don’t expect this to be the beginning of a downward trend as the buoyant... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Higher inflation is coming Although we expect GDP growth to be a moderate 2.5% next year, the big surprise will be how quickly inflation rebounds. With domestic price pressures mounting and this year’s deflationary shocks from... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy exhibiting symptoms of recession The rebound in third-quarter real GDP has prompted some commentators to conclude that Canada’s recession is officially over. But the real GDI measure, which incorporates important terms of trade... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes tied to pace of inflation rebound Last week Chair Janet Yellen all but confirmed that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates from near-zero at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which ends on 16 th December. Any final doubts should have... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Int. Trade (Oct.) The loss of 35,700 jobs in November and the uptick in the unemployment rate to 7.1%, from 7.0%, was party related to the completion of the recent Federal election. The significant loss in private... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) & Int. Trade (Oct.) The 211,000 gain in November's non-farm payrolls, along with the 35,000 upward revision to the gains in the preceding two months, would appear to seal an interest rate hike at the Fed's upcoming FOMC... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
