US Employment Report Preview Marked rebound in payrolls might not be evident until July Our econometric model points to a 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, thanks in part to the return of 35,000 Verizon workers who were excluded from the payroll survey in May. Under those... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jun.) Small business confidence picked up in June and the further improvement predicted for July suggests that manufacturing activity will continue to recover in coming months. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack What to make of Korea’s stimulus package? The Korean government today announced plans for a fiscal stimulus package worth about 20trn won (equivalent to 1.3% of GDP) in response to growing headwinds facing the economy. The decision follows... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Wage growth shows “tentative” signs of a pick-up The growth rate of average hourly earnings has accelerated to 2.5%, from a norm of nearer 2.0% in recent years, and other measures like the Atlanta Fed’s tracker suggest that median wage growth is... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa sinking? We expect that African economic growth this year will fall far below even 2015’s very poor result. The weakness will be concentrated in the region’s largest economies, most of which are still... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Fallout from Brexit vote would be limited A vote by the UK to leave the European Union in tomorrow's referendum would be unlikely to have much impact on India's economy. Indian exports to the UK are equivalent to less than 0.5% of GDP, so... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Underlying inflation to remain low While GDP growth was stronger than expected in Australia and New Zealand in the first quarter, this doesn’t alter our view that underlying inflation will remain low for a while yet. The Australian... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Finland’s competitiveness pact boost the recovery? Finland’s competitiveness pact probably won’t boost employment by as much as the Government hopes. But it is still a positive move that should help to lower labour costs and boost output. 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) May’s data suggest that the labour market is not too strong to prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia from cutting interest rates to 1.5% at its August meeting and not too weak to prompt it to become... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Apr.) In April, the pace of job creation picked up for the second consecutive month. Moreover, with vacancies still high and job creation mainly driven by full-time positions, occupier demand conditions... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Apr./May) The healthy performance of the labour market provides more evidence that growth has not slowed markedly in Q2 ahead of the looming referendum. 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No evidence of labour market downturn in NFIB survey The latest NFIB survey suggests that small businesses are still intent on hiring additional workers, even though finding suitably qualified employees is getting harder. Unfortunately, small businesses... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slump in payroll growth closely resembles the 2012 dip There are one or two genuine reasons to worry about the strength of the labour market. But the deeper we dig, the more we’re convinced the spring slowdown in payroll employment growth is a temporary... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Energy production other shoe to drop Despite the rebound in oil prices this year, domestic energy producers don’t appear to believe in a sustainable recovery judging by the further decline in oil & gas drilling rig activity. Falling... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) While the employment gain of 13,800 in May and drop in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, from 7.1%, was better than most had expected, this was entirely due to hiring in the public sector, partly related... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Set for a slow recovery The downturn in Latin America’s economy should bottom out over the second half of this year and economic growth should return as we move into 2017. The recession in the region’s largest economy –... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
