Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (Sep.) The renewed rise in inflation excl. fresh food and energy in September would provide a reason for the Bank of Japan to leave policy settings unchanged later today. But the rebound in underlying... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets pressure ECB to deliver Policymakers at the ECB have seemingly been priming the markets for additional stimulus to be announced in December. With some form of easing now priced into the market, the Bank is under pressure to... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Mr Osborne’s tax credit options Mr Osborne has various options to soften the impact of his cuts in tax credits, but all of them will cost him some money. Admittedly, this might “only” be a couple of billion for a couple of years... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) While the euro-zone avoided a second straight month of falling prices in October, the absence of inflation in the region keeps the pressure firmly on the ECB to expand its QE programme in December. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending (Sep.) The renewed rise in inflation excl. fresh food and energy in September would provide a reason for the Bank of Japan to leave policy settings unchanged later today. But the rebound in underlying... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth probably rebounded in October Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls rose by a stronger 200,000 in October, up from an average monthly gain of 167,000 over the prior three months. Whether that would be sufficient... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia begins to tighten its belt The past month has brought the clearest signs yet that a fiscal squeeze in Saudi Arabia is looming. According to leaked memos, the Ministry of Finance has ordered government entities to halt new... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Times a-changin’ in Argentina? The surprise outcome of the presidential election in Argentina has raised the prospect of a shift towards more market-friendly policymaking, following 12 years of populism under successive Kirchner... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB QE expansion now more likely than ever ECB President Mario Draghi surprised many with his very dovish comments at the press conference that followed last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting. But he remained coy about what tools the Bank... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth in Taiwan to recover after weak third quarter Figures due to be released over the coming week are likely to show that growth in Taiwan slowed sharply last quarter. However, with prospects for exports improving and domestic demand likely to remain... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack “Good” deflation returns The latest consumer prices figures showed that CPI inflation turned negative again in September. Although the current period of negative inflation should prove to be short lived and shallow, inflation... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Participation rate will continue to fall The decline in the participation rate is almost entirely due to structural factors and there is little prospect of a rebound in the next few years. The downward trend in the participation rate... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italian and Irish budgets highlight contrasting fortunes While in last week’s Budget the Irish Government talked up its proposed tax cuts, the big picture was one of continued fiscal consolidation. All else equal, this will drag on growth. But Ireland’s... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Osborne come to regret his “fiscal charter”? Chancellor George Osborne was last week able to pass his new “fiscal charter”, forcing current and future governments to run a budget surplus during “normal times”. But the Chancellor may come to... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The changing shape of the UK economy - The winners and the losers Beneath the surface, it is clear that the economic recovery has not been firing on all cylinders recently. And the recovery faces a number of headwinds over the next year or so – in particular the re... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s labour recovery won’t stop Riksbank cutting The improvement in Sweden’s labour market in recent months has exceeded consensus expectations and those of the Riksbank. But conditions are still far from healthy and wage growth remains subdued... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
