Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Mar.) While consumer spending and industrial production rebounded in March, the outlook for the second quarter is mixed. With price pressures moderating, we retain our forecast that the Bank of Japan will... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Drought hits agricultural output in Thailand and Vietnam Vietnam and Thailand are facing their worst drought in decades, with water levels in the Mekong River at their lowest since 1926. The drought is already having an impact on growth. A decline in... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Apr.) The fall in small business confidence in April reflects seasonal patterns. Still, the survey suggests that economic activity remains sluggish. 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Second-quarter GDP growth likely to be dismal Although incoming data indicate that first-quarter GDP grew by as much as 2.8% annualised, we doubt this marks the beginning of an upturn in economic growth prospects. Economic growth in that quarter... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The fourth straight drop in the manufacturing PMI in April suggests that the continued strengthening of the yen and the disruptions caused by the Kyushu earthquakes are taking their toll on activity... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Some respite for commodity producers The worst looks to be over for many EM commodity producers. Their currencies have again been among the best performers this month, helped by a continued recovery in commodity prices. The slump in... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price inflation to converge on earnings growth House price inflation has strengthened a little since our previous Analyst. But the economy has lost a little momentum and forward-looking demand indicators, such as buyer enquiries, are easing... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) Today’s UK labour market data added to recent signs that the economy slowed at the start of 2016. Accordingly, interest rates look set to be on hold for a while yet. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Policymakers running out of ammunition The euro-zone’s gradual recovery appears to be slowing as we had warned as boosts from the euro’s depreciation and falling oil prices fade. However, the ECB has hinted at limits to its future policy... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar.) The 26,100 rebound in employment in March is something of a relief given the stagnation in the previous three months. With the unemployment rate falling from 5.8% to 5.7%, the labour market appears in... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Potential growth still held back by productivity slump If sustained (admittedly a big if), the recent surge in labour force growth would mean that the US economy’s potential growth rate is arguably higher than most economists currently believe... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Strength of low-paid hiring may be holding down average wages The recent weakness of wage growth over the past few months is partly explained by a deterioration in the quality of jobs being created, which is also reflected in a surge in low-skilled labour force... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Despite a small rise in mortgage interest rates the strong labour market, high consumer confidence and historically favourable mortgage affordability all combined to ensure that mortgage applications... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth still weak, but not slowing sharply Business surveys edged up in March but still point to global economic growth of only around 2%. In the US, jobs growth remained strong and, with core inflation pressures building, we think the Fed... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Panic ebbs but outlook still subdued The sense of panic about emerging economies that gripped financial markets at the start of this year has eased. This is justified. There are few signs that the emerging world is on the brink of a... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
