US Economics Weekly Rise in labour’s share of income has further to run The gradual decline in the unemployment rate over the past couple of years has generated a cyclical rebound in labour’s share of income, which we suspect has further to run. At first glance, this... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) & Int. Trade (Jul.) The August employment report is not going to convince Fed officials to vote for a rate hike later this month, although an increase in December is still likely. 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) The unchanged headline inflation rate in August highlights the fact that price pressures in the euro-zone remain weak and boosts the case for more monetary easing from the ECB. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Resetting reform priorities after the GST The passage of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill this month, 10 years after its introduction, was arguably the biggest legislative victory to date for the Modi government. Looking ahead, the... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Why is wage growth not picking up? The tight labour market in Japan is delivering pay increases for younger workers willing to move jobs, but a low level of labour market mobility and a rising share of older workers, for whom pay rises... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Retail Sales & Household Spending (Jul.) Today’s labour market data showed that job growth accelerated further in July. As the number of people in paid employment continues to rise rapidly, consumer spending should recover further this... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness of residential investment unlikely to last After providing a small but valuable contribution to growth over the past couple of years, residential investment unexpectedly became a drag in the second quarter, contracting at a 7.7% annualised... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mixed messages from economic surveys The euro-zone Composite PMI has held up well since the UK’s Brexit vote, but it is too soon to sound the all clear. After all, the Composite PMI measures current output rather than indicating how... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Taking stock of data for the post-referendum period It has been two months since the UK voted to leave the EU and you could be forgiven for being puzzled by the recent data on the economy. After all, different sets of figures released have given... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Shrugging off Brexit worries for now While early post-referendum indicators of consumer spending have been fairly upbeat, spending growth is still set to slow following the vote to leave the EU. Labour market conditions are likely to... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Gradual slowdown in pace of payroll gains inevitable Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by a more sustainable 180,000 in August. Otherwise, we suspect that after remaining unchanged in recent months, the unemployment rate... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the jobs recovery about to lose its vigour? On the face of it, last week’s labour market figures provided some further welcome signs that the immediate impact of the Brexit vote on the economy might not be quite as bad as many had feared. The... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: First hard data give some cause for optimism The first raft of official data covering the post-referendum period, released this week, was surprisingly upbeat in the main. Overall, the data add weight to our view that while the economy is set to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why wage growth will stay low While the latest data showed that employment growth has surged in Australia and New Zealand and the unemployment rate has edged down in both economies recently, this won’t be enough to generate... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul.) July’s labour market figures were much better than expected and forward looking indicators suggest the labour market should continue to remain healthy. However, given that part-time positions... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth should pick up as headwinds fade After a muted performance over the past 12 months, we expect GDP growth to accelerate in the second half of this year, albeit mainly because the drags from falling investment and inventories will fade... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
