US Data Response Employment Report (Sep. 16) The more modest 156,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September, combined with the tick up in the unemployment rate to a five-month high of 5.0%, won’t stop the Fed from hiking interest rates at the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep. 16) The massive 67,000 increase in employment in September will reassure the Bank of Canada that the economy is still enjoying a decent rebound following the wildfire disruption in the second quarter... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB going to taper? We think that the rise in government bond yields and slight appreciation of the euro after last week’sreports that the ECB is considering tapering its asset purchases were overdone. After all, in... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.) Wage growth slowed in August as the bonus payments slumped after the end of the summer bonus season. While growth in hourly wages remains strong, we expect it to fall again in coming months. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Q3 growth slowdown won’t be too sharp Both survey and hard data published this month suggest that GDP will grow moderately in Q3, avoiding too sharp of a slowdown from Q2’s upwardly-revised quarterly rate of 0.7%. Indeed, the 0.4% monthly... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan Q3 According to today’s Tankan survey, conditions in the manufacturing sector remained the weakest they have been seen the launch of QQE, while conditions in non-manufacturing continued to worsen. The... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) Headline inflation in the euro-zone has started to pick up as the effects of previous falls in energy prices fade. But with a large amount of slack in the labour market, underlying price pressures... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Aug.) While the consumer spending data send conflicting messages for Q3 GDP growth, the solid rise in industrial production in August strongly suggests that Japan’s economy continued to recover in the third... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Stronger payrolls may not be enough to cut unemployment We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by a slightly stronger 190,000 in September, but this would probably leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack The envy of the advanced world The growth rates enjoyed by Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter continue to be the envy of most advanced nations. The 3.3% and 3.6% respective rises in GDP over the last year were much... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) Even though small business confidence remains consistent with falling industrial production despite a rebound in September, firms’ forecasts for October suggest that conditions are on the mend. 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How are retailers coping with the National Living Wage? It is almost six months since the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) and the initial impact on employment and wages in the retail sector does not appear to be particularly severe. But its... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB unlikely to follow in Bank of Japan’s footsteps The Bank of Japan’s announcement that it will replace its target for the monetary base with a 0% target for 10-year government bond yields has prompted speculation about whether the ECB might follow... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rollout of GST is edging closer Progress in implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) since the bill was passed in parliament in early August has so far been fairly smooth. However, there are still a number of sticking points... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What are the alternatives to a points-based migration system? The Prime Minister’s rejection of a points-based migration system (PBS) has left several alternatives which may have more beneficial economic effects. In reality though, the UK’s migration policy... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still little inflationary pressure from the labour market Even when the euro-zone economy seems to have performed fairly well, it has still been unable to generate any inflationary pressure. Indeed, despite the reasonably strong rate of employment growth in... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
