UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The labour market has shrugged off the 0.2% q/q fall in GDP in Q2, providing support to our view that the economy will recover in Q3. Indeed, employment rose by 115,000 on the quarter (consensus +60... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Jul.) The second consecutive monthly drop in employment will raise a few eyebrows among policymakers, but it’s the surge in hourly wage growth to 4.5% that will capture the most attention. Stronger wage... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) Wage growth accelerated in June as regular earnings stopped falling and summer bonuses rose. However, wages increased even faster once we allow for sampling changes that will probably only disappear... 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q2) The sharp fall in the unemployment rate is unlikely to prevent the RBNZ from cutting rates tomorrow given that labour market data are volatile and often prone to revision. What’s more, we expect the... 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The 164,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July confirms that employment growth is trending lower, but it also suggests that the economy is still coping reasonably well amidst concerns over weaker... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to take a breather before cutting rates further We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to take a breather and leave rates on hold at 1.0% at its upcoming meeting on Tuesday the 6th of August following the back to back rate cuts in June and July... 31st July 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Falling profitability to weigh on investment The slowdown in domestic economic activity along with global trade tensions is becoming more of a concern for businesses in both countries. That means that sentiment has not been bolstered by the... 30th July 2019 · 10 mins read
India Economics Weekly Acharya steps down, labour reform bills tabled Dr Viral Acharya, who stepped down from the MPC this week, was one of the most hawkish members of the committee. As such, his departure boosts the chances of further rate cuts in the near term. But it... 26th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions beginning to sour Our model points to a renewed slowdown in payroll employment growth in July to just 145,000, from 224,000. As the economy slows further, we expect a more marked downturn in employment growth later... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Profit slump driven by weak demand, not rising wages The recent drop in corporate profits appears to have been driven by weak global demand rather than by rising wages. Accordingly, profits are likely to fall further over coming months even if we’re... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Surge in participation rate nearing its end The surge in the participation rate that has boosted employment by nearly a tenth since 2012 and thereby underpinned stronger economic growth is running out of steam. This will have a big impact... 22nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto suggests wage growth is stagnating This year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in pay hikes that aren’t any stronger than those agreed upon a year ago. That’s rather disappointing given how tight the labour market is. Meanwhile... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) We think the slowdown in employment growth has further to run and suspect that the deterioration in the labour market will cause the unemployment rate to rise before the year is out. 18th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May) The further slowdown in employment growth in May looks set to continue over the rest of this year as firms take a breath after the hiring spree in the first quarter. However, the labour market should... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that... 10th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Wages kept falling in May even though the labour market remained very tight. That reflects sampling changes which have lowered the aggregate wage level. As those distortions start to fade, wage growth... 9th July 2019 · 2 mins read
