China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional slowdown worsens The focus on political risk and Lebanon’s growing debt problem have meant that the sharp slowdown in growth across large parts of the region has gone unnoticed. The latest figures suggest that the... 29th October 2019 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Participation rate should continue to rise We estimate that the participation rate will rise by around 0.35ppt per annum over the next couple of years. That means that the economy needs to create around 300,000 additional jobs per annum to... 29th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan to remain on hold next week We now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25bp next week, which could result in a renewed strengthening of the yen and increase the pressure on the Bank of Japan to lower... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview GM strike to hit payrolls hard We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by just 25,000 in October, mainly reflecting disruption caused by the strike at GM. Even excluding that temporary hit, however, the underlying pace of... 24th October 2019 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will eventually push the QE button The drop in the unemployment rate in September means that the RBA won’t cut interest rates in November. But we still expect the labour market and underlying inflation to weaken over the coming months... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The RBA will breathe a sigh of relief after the unemployment rate declined in September. But we think it won’t be long before unemployment starts to rise again, forcing the RBA to provide additional... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to recover, CEE to lose its shine Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and... 16th October 2019 · 26 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The drop in employment and tick down in wage growth in August is further evidence that deeper fissures are starting to appear in the labour market. However, the unemployment rate is still low and wage... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The second month of strong employment gains in September suggests that the labour market is continuing to shrug off global growth concerns. But with the gains driven by public sector and self-employed... 11th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Global Competitiveness Index gives food for thought The drop in India’s ranking in the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Index released this week is likely to reverse next year as reforms has been stepped up since the general... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Slowdown delayed not averted China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to... 10th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Further slowdown in China, but recovery elsewhere Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But... 10th October 2019 · 49 mins read
